[Type R]

The contest between Obama and Clinton is very tight. The winner will probably be determined by a technicality, or luck, or something great or stupid one of them says or does, or some damning thing from their past. Either way, the Hillary and Barack contest is very close to 50-50.

On the Republican side, the nominee has already been decided.

Which leads to the question: if Obama wins the Democratic Party nomination, what happens to Hillary's massive number of passionate followers? Don't assume that they'll vote for Obama, end of year. No, no, no, no.

Understand this: Many people do not vote for a candidate, they vote against the other candidate. Negative voters, I call them. Consider this: many people did not vote for Raila per se, they voted against Kibaki, his clique and Kikuyus in general on Dec 27.

Many of Hillary's supporters are actually Obama's opponents, nothing more. They think he's inexperienced and hey, he's black, or at least a "Pointi." If Obama wins the nomination, they will cross over to the Republican side during the general election. In a 50-50 contest, that is a nightmare for the grandson of Kendu Bay.

McCain faces no such bad dreams. With a nomination victory margin of around 82-18, the behaviour of that 18% cannot bother him at all during the general election.

If Hillary wins, should she worry about how Obama's supporters will vote? In this case, the race factor may help her. Obama's disappointed supporters may feel more comfortable with her than with the Republicans. This may giver her the edge, in fact more than an "edge" -- a massive boost.

Obama's charisma and oratory skills give him the tools needed to fight any outflux of democrats to the Republican side in the event of nomination, but he'll be walking uphill. His two negating factors -- inexperienced and black -- may weigh against him.

[The banned Kip Nakuru]

This is by far the most stupid thing i have ever heard this year.Believe me you know totally nothing about delegates math and the dems in general.Please how about shutting up!

Originally Posted by Type R

The contest between Obama and Clinton is very tight. The winner will probably be determined by a technicality, or luck, or something great or stupid one of them says or does, or some damning thing from their past. Either way, the Hillary and Barack contest is very close to 50-50.

On the Republican side, the nominee has already been decided.

Which leads to the question: if Obama wins the Democratic Party nomination, what happens to Hillary's massive number of passionate followers? Don't assume that they'll vote for Obama, end of year. No, no, no, no.

Understand this: Many people do not vote for a candidate, they vote against the other candidate. Negative voters, I call them. Consider this: many people did not vote for Raila per se, they voted against Kibaki, his clique and Kikuyus in general on Dec 27.

Many of Hillary's supporters are actually Obama's opponents, nothing more. They think he's inexperienced and hey, he's black, or at least a "Pointi." If Obama wins the nomination, they will cross over to the Republican side during the general election. In a 50-50 contest, that is a nightmare for the grandson of Kendu Bay.

McCain faces no such bad dreams. With a nomination victory margin of around 82-18, the behaviour of that 18% cannot bother him at all during the general election.

If Hillary wins, should she worry about how Obama's supporters will vote? In this case, the race factor may help her. Obama's disappointed supporters may feel more comfortable with her than with the Republicans. This may giver her the edge, in fact more than an "edge" -- a massive boost.

Obama's charisma and oratory skills give him the tools needed to fight any outflux of democrats to the Republican side in the event of nomination, but he'll be walking uphill. His two negating factors -- inexperienced and black -- may weigh against him.

[msema ukweli Kabisa]

Originally Posted by The banned Kip Nakuru

This is by far the most stupid thing i have ever heard this year.Believe me you know totally nothing about delegates math and the dems in general.Please how about shutting up!

Lol Kip I totally agree, he has no clue. Actually its Obama voters who mostly are independents that would not vote for clinton.

Democrats would even vote for a chicken if it was running against this idiot republicans

[kenyajuu]

Originally Posted by msema ukweli Kabisa

Lol Kip I totally agree, he has no clue. Actually its Obama voters who mostly are independents that would not vote for clinton.

Democrats would even vote for a chicken if it was running against this idiot republicans

Sasa MUK, nice to see that you are still around.

[msema ukweli Kabisa]

Originally Posted by kenyajuu

Sasa MUK, nice to see that you are still around.

I am, just tend to avoid the dirty kenyan politics. With so much deaths that happened in january I was shocked by the power of negativity.

how is maisha?

[kenyajuu]

Originally Posted by msema ukweli Kabisa

I am, just tend to avoid the dirty kenyan politics. With so much deaths that happened in january I was shocked by the power of negativity.

how is maisha?

Sasa MUK,
I just started living again after the power-sharing peace deal. I hope that we wont have to go that road of hacking each other, destroying our country and negative ethnicity again!
Long live Kenya.

[Type R]

Originally Posted by The banned Kip Nakuru

This is by far the most stupid thing i have ever heard this year.Believe me you know totally nothing about delegates math and the dems in general.Please how about shutting up!

I love airheads like you. You accuse others of knowing nothing about A-B-C and then you offer nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing in response, thereby demonstrating the purity of the vacuum between your ears.

[Type R]

Obama has just won Wyoming and Mississippi. His delegate lead is now about 150, plus or minus.

The dangerous "super-delegates" number about 800, which is a mad wildcard since they are free to choose either Rodham or Hussein at the Democratic nominations. The 800 could easily overturn his 150 delegate lead.

There are about 600 delegates at stake in the remaining contests. To overcome a 150 deficit, Hilary needs to beat Barack 450-250, an uphill battle. Remaining states include Pennsylvania, Indiana, Guam, West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. Since it is not "winner takes all" but "proportionate sharing of delegates," things look bad for Hilary.

That's why Rodham is hoping to bring Florida and Michigan back into play. The delegates from these states were not accepted because of holding the primaries too early, and now a revote is difficult because the Dems party has justifiably refused to finance a revote. So what will happen?

Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida, Michigan - big industrial states seem to prefer Hilary over Barack. She will make up ground.

If she can convince super-delegates that Barack's losses in all big states - California, New York, etc, etc - will be a big liability in the general election (a point I hold myself), Clinton can win herself a justifiable win.


Copied-and-pasted from here: -

If you go just by the states that have voted Democrat in the last couple of elections, Hillary will get the nod from the super delegates.
Nobody gives a **** about the middle of the country because neither obama or clinton are gonna win ID, NV, AZ, UT, CO, WY, MO, ND, SD, NB, KS, OK, TX, LA, MO, IA, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, IN, WV.

Wow those seem to be the states that Obama won but still won't win in the General Election.

Let's assume those are all going McCain because they pretty much are. Of the remaining states Clinton would have the lead. And that is with me gifting the other states to Obama. The lead would be 123 to 101 electoral votes. We need the candidate that can take Florida and Ohio away from the Republicans.

That is why Clinton will get the support of the super delegates and it will be a horse race to the presidency. Sadly the edge probably goes to McCain who will probably take FL and OH

[MistaT]

Originally Posted by Type R

Obama has just won Wyoming and Mississippi. His delegate lead is now about 150, plus or minus.

The dangerous "super-delegates" number about 800, which is a mad wildcard since they are free to choose either Rodham or Hussein at the Democratic nominations. The 800 could easily overturn his 150 delegate lead.

There are about 600 delegates at stake in the remaining contests. To overcome a 150 deficit, Hilary needs to beat Barack 450-250, an uphill battle. Remaining states include Pennsylvania, Indiana, Guam, West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. Since it is not "winner takes all" but "proportionate sharing of delegates," things look bad for Hilary.

That's why Rodham is hoping to bring Florida and Michigan back into play. The delegates from these states were not accepted because of holding the primaries too early, and now a revote is difficult because the Dems party has justifiably refused to finance a revote. So what will happen?

Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida, Michigan - big industrial states seem to prefer Hilary over Barack. She will make up ground.

If she can convince super-delegates that Barack's losses in all big states - California, New York, etc, etc - will be a big liability in the general election (a point I hold myself), Clinton can win herself a justifiable win.


Copied-and-pasted from here: -

If you go just by the states that have voted Democrat in the last couple of elections, Hillary will get the nod from the super delegates.
Nobody gives a **** about the middle of the country because neither obama or clinton are gonna win ID, NV, AZ, UT, CO, WY, MO, ND, SD, NB, KS, OK, TX, LA, MO, IA, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, IN, WV.

Wow those seem to be the states that Obama won but still won't win in the General Election.

Let's assume those are all going McCain because they pretty much are. Of the remaining states Clinton would have the lead. And that is with me gifting the other states to Obama. The lead would be 123 to 101 electoral votes. We need the candidate that can take Florida and Ohio away from the Republicans.

That is why Clinton will get the support of the super delegates and it will be a horse race to the presidency. Sadly the edge probably goes to McCain who will probably take FL and OH

Your scenario analysis of what 'if' and when 'if' presume that a win must end at the white house. Sometimes, though, a loss is bigger than a win,and for Obama whatever happens at this points he has proven a big point that will become a turning point in the future directions of millions of young black men and women.

Your thinking though is similar to, and rests on the same logical analysis as that of the former teacher of Malcom X, who had the 'courage' to bring the young man into 'reality' of his limitation as a black man. It is the same thinking that tries to paint Obama's attempt as an illusion, and all about 'words'. This thinking is to a great extent based on educated ignorance supported by several decades and in some cases, centuries, of indocrination of which the apartheid regime had its roots deeply rooted in.

The educated ignorance that Obama hopes to eradicate, to me, is fight bigger that the fight for the white house or even the fight for the democratic ticket. It is a fight that aims at reversing a mental state that has been inadvertedly 'supported' by Afrikans all over the world for several centuries. Obama's run is about freeing our minds and restoring hope, of which the marginalised people from Harlem to Soweto has lost every bit of. In short, we need hope, and Obama gives hope!

Win or no win. Obama and his constituency, which includes those who have been deprived of hope, will be the winners!

[Type R]

The more I think about, an Obama-Clinton ticket is the best way to win. In fact, right now, I think they are just jostling to see who will be The Big Kahuna and who will be V.P. Anything less, and they've given it to the Republicans.

Those so-called "red states" -- those ones that always vote Republican, I don't think Obama can take those away from McCain. Add to that, the fact that he lost the "big states" to Hillary, and you can see how the Democratic Party superdelegates may press these two candidates into a compromise.