The Next leader of Opposition

[N.Dakota Man]

The coming elections as much as pundits put them as a hotly contested race, I disagree. These elections are going to be a one way affair with the real opponents being those advocating for real change and those rooting for status quo. With the current state of things, very few, maybe the elitist will be comfortable with the present as such these elections will be won by the pro-change advocates.

That brings me to this nagging question. In the obvious event that Kibaki looses this election as he is going to, who will be the leader of opposition? Before we consider answering this, some facts need to be put down. One, Kibaki will loose the elections as an MP through the PNU (Potea Na Uhuru) party. Signs are that he could be the only MP through that party. This is in itself a technical knock out for Kibaki as a leader of the opposition benches since the constitution states that the leader of opposition will come from the party with majority seats on the opposition side. The second fact is that PNU does not have any leadership structure. This gives it a vacuum of leadership in the event that Kibaki does not take serious interest in its affairs as has been the case with NARC. The third fact is that PNU is a coalition of individual parties, parties that are so eager to retain their identity.

Will Kibaki be the leader of opposition if he loses these elections assuming that the constituent parties all recognize him as their leader in the post election period? Will he resign leaving a vacuum to be preyed on by the leaders of constituent parties? Knowing the greed levels exhibited by our MPs and the kind of returns that this office bear, who among the leaders of PNU member parties wouldn’t want to be the leader of opposition? A case could be projected that the presidential running mate will automatically be the leader of opposition in the event that Kibaki resigns but will he go into these elections with a number two knowing the how destabilizing that could be to his bid?

PNU SAGA

Party of National Unity or is it Party of Nationally Useless. Of all the jokes and absurdity that have characterized Kibaki’s leadership over the past 4years. This is the most ignorant moves ever. I would rather hear him abuse Kenyans as Wapumbavu 40 times than hear him shout PNU once.

Emotions aside, what does this move portends to his reelection bid? Am no Mutahi Ngunyi, who of late has been of mark in some of his analysis and predictions, but I can comfortably tell you that Mr. Mwai is headed to Othaya in face-me matatu. On the other bench during that road will be Uhuru Kenyatta hitching a hike towards Gatundu. Why am of this opinion?

For one Kibaki is surrounded with big time looser, two losers in a presidential race, Uhuru and the aging psychotic Nyachae. Musikari Kombo is even doubtful in his own Webuye home. Mwakwere had nothing to say other than use such a podium to spread rumors and call other witch crafts. Who is going to sell Kibaki?

The notion that Uhuru will inherit the Kibaki mantle in central province is far fetched and he knows it. People like Kimunya, Njoki Ndungu, Martha Karua, Paul Muite and Saitoti might just carry the day. I don’t see Mr Kenyatta putting his resources in this campaign other than in his Gatundu area. Majority of the so called leaders of political parties will be struggling with opponents in their backyard hence very little time will be available for them to sell Kibaki. In 2002 Kibaki’s campaigns were marshaled by leaders who knew they would comfortably win in their own constituencies. Who amongst the crop of leaders in Kibaki’s camp is assured of the 10th parliament other than himself?

In short its going to be an uphill task selling PNU and by extension selling Kibaki

Second reason, PNU, as young as it is, is a house on fire. The crunch time will come during the nomination of parliamentary and civic candidates. The proposed method of constituent parties fielding candidates in areas in which they are strong is unworkable. How will one party prove that its stronger in an area as opposed to the other? Is Kanu stronger in Kiambu that Narc- Kenya? The chaos and disorder in PNU will have a ripple effect in Kibaki’s reelection bid in two ways; one, two much energy will be focused on civic and parliamentary seats as opposed to his campaigns. Two, the confusion that will be brought in by many parties will disorganize the rural network that is so much required to win an election.

Another reason why Kibaki is doomed is the extent to which his campaigns are a Mt. Kenya affair. The save face efforts being pushed through PNU will not work. This is a reason because PNU as an entity lacks leadership. Who is in charge of PNU? PNU is an umbrella party of parties, through what party is Kibaki coming in? The lack of clear cut leadership will eventually erode the good will that smaller parties that dominate other communities have. This will come about since for sure the likes of Murungaru Murungi and the now common faces of Mt. Kenya mafia will want to have control of things in the new outfit. This will lead to net defection by many leaders as a protest. How this will affect Kibaki’s bid is obvious.

What does these so called leaders of political parties bring into Kibaki;s basket? I wonder! Take for Uhuru Kenyatta who moved into PNU with a bare shell composed of retirees and councilors. In Kenya, when party affairs are run by councilors, as is the case with Kanu through Taib Ali Taib, then the party is doomed. Uhuru is givin Kibaki, the name leaving behind the people.