Government Using Musyoka to Destroy ODM-K

[msema ukweli Kabisa]

Originally Posted by thuown

Only the foolish ones can write off Raila and Co. 5 months to the election. Ruto- Mudavadi-Raila axis can still win an election with Kalonzo. As long as they can isolate the Kamba vote and beat Kibaki in Western and Coast and still keep their core votes in Nairobi, Rift valley, Nyanza and North Eastern they will still win.

- Moi is doing is best to split the Kalenjin vote. If he succeeds then Kibaki will win. However, dont count on this until you see it.

If you get too excited you might die of heart attack celebrating ODMs death only for the monster to return.

@ Old School.
I could not agree more that only the foolish ones will write off raila at this point and to their own peril.
But I beg to differ with you on the Mudavadi-Ruto axis for the following reasons;
1. Immediately they crown Raila as the flag bearer they will cease to be important in their regions thanks to our tribe based politics. These two have just been railas creations and yet to show any clout on their own.
2. I guess part of the kibaki campaign strategy is to give any important raila supporter enough to worry about locally to keep them busy.

3. Further more Kibaki does not need to win more 40% to make it in the said regions and going by the current events he may even get more.

4. Since the exit of Matiba, kibaki was always the candidate to beat in central, Nairobi and eastern (even in eastern when Ngilu mounted a serious challenge). I have not seen anything to suggest that this trend would now change (the danger to him is only of kalonzo or ngilu would deliver votes to raila).
4. Nyachae is in the picture so raila does not even have 100% of the nyanza vote under lock.
5. Kalegins on there part will vote which ever way they please, some voted for kibaki before when Uhuru was the tribal choice so it is expected that more may join him this time round because his incumbency status .

But as I said one cannot completely write Raila off. What tricks do you think he should employ this give kibaki a knock out blow?

1. I think he should snatch the support of moi from Kibaki, by doing a deal with Gideon the way Uhuru was to. Papa will have not choice but to support the raila after this deal.

2. Find a way to appease Nyachae, this should be easy since nyachaes has even talked about retiring, by being out of the picture he will do Raila a lot of good. He just has to give Nyachae something in return (MOU to nominate and appoint his child a minister)

3. Make sure he has enough spin masters so that whatever happens the image of united solid ODM is maintained, this way he will have his grip on western …..I am not sure of coast because of recent magarini but it is the best one can do.

4. if kalonzo does not mend his ways, replace him with ngilu.

5. The most important thing is to continue with country wide rallies; and with his talent of finding issues to accuse the system for, on regular basis, many may be won into voting him the savior come November

Nice analysis thuown

[Mzee Pembe]

Originally Posted by KayJay1

kalonzo learnt something from moi 4 sure...riler had totally under-estimated him, as usual he blames somebody else for the mess..... politics, it is a game of the ages....! I respect kalonzo more now, and am sure so do many other kenyans....ndelefa shuga maisha!

I agree with you KJ, as i had stated earlier Kalonzo is a force to recon, very smart and calculated. It was well expected for Railas suppoters, pippy and co. to start making such blunt excuses, ati govement is using Kalonzo. thats utter rubbish!! Kalonzo told kibaki to his face that he will be his challenger in the elections. Raila and Kalonzo are two very different politicians, the loud makelele that comes from excited pple seem to fool Raila. We dont see Kalonzo running around like a headless chicken the way Raila does, but someway somehow he always has the upper hand. Hes simply too smart for Raila, and if its not kibaki, its Kalonzo for sure!!

[Mt. KenyaMafia]

stupid Mudavadi is slow to think!!!!
He needs his own party like yesterday!!!!
That boy will not see parliament again with all those Titan forces running against him in Western Kenya!!!

[Senator76]

Kalonzo’s is a leap to nowhere

[PippyZa]

It is not fair to hurl insults at somebody of Mudavadi´s status because by doing so, we are lowering our own dignity.Moreover, he has the right to support whoever he likes.When he supported Kalonzo Musyoka, we the Raila Supporters kept cool knowing that this was his right but now that he regained his eyesight to Support Raila, Kikuyus and Mzee Pembe says´he is behaving like a Prostitute..My last word is, Please, respect Mheshimiwa..he has all the moral rights to abundon the kalonzo camp..

[Senator76]

The cowards are running away without being told to run and now you can see the power hungry and ideologyless people like Kalonzo..Kalonzo is leaping to nowhere..he is going nowhere and will never be president in Kenya...

[sunburn mach 2.5]

Originally Posted by Senator76

The cowards are running away without being told to run and now you can see the power hungry and ideologyless people like Kalonzo..Kalonzo is leaping to nowhere..he is going nowhere and will never be president in Kenya...

And what is Raila ideology? Please define and explain it to us who never seem to see it. You may even enlighten us enough to abandon Kibaki and support Raila. So please, go ahead and do the business.

[m kenya]

Ok, so now Raila will lock out the Kamba vote, the kikuyu vote. Railas sympathizers seem to think that Ruto, Mudavadi and Balala symbolize whole regions. Its only Raila who can be assured of close to 95% votes in his luo backyard, which will represent at most 900,000+ people. Mudavadi will bring into ODM something like 30% of the vote, say 700000 votes as Musikari Kombo, and Jirongo will eat into the vote. Ruto will delivery probably 60% of the Kalenjin,(NOT RIFT VALLEY) vote, accounting to something like 2.5 million votes.
Balala is a non-starter.
Factor in a few sympathetic votes, from other regions that could bring in say 500000 votes, lets do the math.

This is Raila for you, if he choses to run for president (from which party, is anyones guess)

1.0 million from Nyanza,
2.5 million from Rift valley
700000 from western
400,000 from coast.
500,000 from Nairobi
500000 votes (from Eastern, central, kisii, North eastern, Maasai).

So,5.6 million for Raila

Lets look at Kibaki.
1.9 million from central.
1.2 million from coast
900000 from N.Eastern
1.2 million from western
1 million from Rift Valley
1.2 million from Nairobi.
20,000 from Luo Nyanza
500,000 from Kisii Nyanza
300 000 from Maasai.

Lets do the Math.

[COLOR="Blue"]8.2 million votes.[/COLOR

[NamLolwe]

M Kenya,

For your info,
1. North Eastern registered voters based on the ECK records is 300,000.
Was wondering if your figure of 900,000 includes Refugees you guys might
have given voters cards to tilt the weight in your favour?
2. Maasai are inhabitants of Rift Valley. So which are these Maa Community
you group outside RV to number 300,000?
3. Kibaki will never get 1.2m from Nairobi even if he build fly overs or the
Muthurwa market. Yours remain a pipe dream. As for Kalonzo he doesnt
merit even a single second of my time. He will always remain a coward.

[mak&emoto]

Originally Posted by m kenya

Ok, so now Raila will lock out the Kamba vote, the kikuyu vote. Railas sympathizers seem to think that Ruto, Mudavadi and Balala symbolize whole regions. Its only Raila who can be assured of close to 95% votes in his luo backyard, which will represent at most 900,000+ people. Mudavadi will bring into ODM something like 30% of the vote, say 700000 votes as Musikari Kombo, and Jirongo will eat into the vote. Ruto will delivery probably 60% of the Kalenjin,(NOT RIFT VALLEY) vote, accounting to something like 2.5 million votes.
Balala is a non-starter.
Factor in a few sympathetic votes, from other regions that could bring in say 500000 votes, lets do the math.

This is Raila for you, if he choses to run for president (from which party, is anyones guess)

1.0 million from Nyanza,
2.5 million from Rift valley
700000 from western
400,000 from coast.
500,000 from Nairobi
500000 votes (from Eastern, central, kisii, North eastern, Maasai).

So,5.6 million for Raila

Lets look at Kibaki.
1.9 million from central.
1.2 million from coast
900000 from N.Eastern
1.2 million from western
1 million from Rift Valley
1.2 million from Nairobi.
20,000 from Luo Nyanza
500,000 from Kisii Nyanza
300 000 from Maasai.

Lets do the Math.

[COLOR="Blue"]8.2 million votes.[/COLOR

Ati Kibaki will get what? get serious m kenya, he will get
3,000 Maasai votes,
20 Luo Nyanza votes,
9,000 walalo votes,
50,000 Kisii votes,
100,000 Lunje Western votes,
250,000 Kikuyu Rift Valley votes,
200,000 Coast Votes,
300,000 Eastern Province Votes,
5,000 Kao Votes,
1.1 million Central Votes
Total 2,017,020 Votes.