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Default Obama vs McCain: the mathematics - 06-04-2008, 02:31 AM

Success breeds success. People like winners.

Obama's win in itself has given him a boost vis-a-vis John McCain.

Obama leads McCain in most polls.

One of "the late" Hillary's campaign ideas was that Obama could not take the big states. The latest (June 3, 08) polls show that he leads: -

* California, 55 collegiate votes
* New York, 31

* Ohio, 20
* Illinois (of course), 21
* Michigan, 17

On the other hand, McCain has: -

* Florida, 27 (where GW Bush nicked Al Gore and led to a meaningless horrible war)
* Georgia, 15
* New Jersey, 15
* North Carolina, 15
* Pennsylvania, 21
* Texas, 34

The big picture looks 50-50, with a slight edge to Obama, so Obama-vs-McCain will be another "down to the wire" scenario, just like Obama-vs-Hillary.

Obama gets 280 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, according to SurveyUSA. Obama wins in most polls.

Other polls: -

USA Today/Gallup, Obama 49, McCain 44
Rasmussen Tracking, 46-46, Tie
Gallup, 45-46: McCain +1.0
Pew Research, 47-44: Obama +3.0
Newsweek, 46-46 Tie
Reuters/Zogby, 48-40: Obama +8.0

Obama only faces one serious potential nightmare.
 
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