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Originally Posted by Type R
Obama has just won Wyoming and Mississippi. His delegate lead is now about 150, plus or minus.
The dangerous "super-delegates" number about 800, which is a mad wildcard since they are free to choose either Rodham or Hussein at the Democratic nominations. The 800 could easily overturn his 150 delegate lead.
There are about 600 delegates at stake in the remaining contests. To overcome a 150 deficit, Hilary needs to beat Barack 450-250, an uphill battle. Remaining states include Pennsylvania, Indiana, Guam, West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. Since it is not "winner takes all" but "proportionate sharing of delegates," things look bad for Hilary.
That's why Rodham is hoping to bring Florida and Michigan back into play. The delegates from these states were not accepted because of holding the primaries too early, and now a revote is difficult because the Dems party has justifiably refused to finance a revote. So what will happen?
Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida, Michigan - big industrial states seem to prefer Hilary over Barack. She will make up ground.
If she can convince super-delegates that Barack's losses in all big states - California, New York, etc, etc - will be a big liability in the general election (a point I hold myself), Clinton can win herself a justifiable win.
Copied-and-pasted from here: -
If you go just by the states that have voted Democrat in the last couple of elections, Hillary will get the nod from the super delegates.
Nobody gives a **** about the middle of the country because neither obama or clinton are gonna win ID, NV, AZ, UT, CO, WY, MO, ND, SD, NB, KS, OK, TX, LA, MO, IA, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, IN, WV.
Wow those seem to be the states that Obama won but still won't win in the General Election.
Let's assume those are all going McCain because they pretty much are. Of the remaining states Clinton would have the lead. And that is with me gifting the other states to Obama. The lead would be 123 to 101 electoral votes. We need the candidate that can take Florida and Ohio away from the Republicans.
That is why Clinton will get the support of the super delegates and it will be a horse race to the presidency. Sadly the edge probably goes to McCain who will probably take FL and OH |
Your scenario analysis of what 'if' and when 'if' presume that a win must end at the white house. Sometimes, though, a loss is bigger than a win,and for Obama whatever happens at this points he has proven a big point that will become a turning point in the future directions of millions of young black men and women.
Your thinking though is similar to, and rests on the same logical analysis as that of the former teacher of Malcom X, who had the 'courage' to bring the young man into 'reality' of his limitation as a black man. It is the same thinking that tries to paint Obama's attempt as an illusion, and all about 'words'. This thinking is to a great extent based on educated ignorance supported by several decades and in some cases, centuries, of indocrination of which the apartheid regime had its roots deeply rooted in.
The educated ignorance that Obama hopes to eradicate, to me, is fight bigger that the fight for the white house or even the fight for the democratic ticket. It is a fight that aims at reversing a mental state that has been inadvertedly 'supported' by Afrikans all over the world for several centuries. Obama's run is about freeing our minds and restoring hope, of which the marginalised people from Harlem to Soweto has lost every bit of. In short, we need hope, and Obama gives hope!
Win or no win. Obama and his constituency, which includes those who have been deprived of hope, will be the winners!