[Type R]

The contest between Obama and Clinton is very tight. The winner will probably be determined by a technicality, or luck, or something great or stupid one of them says or does, or some damning thing from their past. Either way, the Hillary and Barack contest is very close to 50-50.

On the Republican side, the nominee has already been decided.

Which leads to the question: if Obama wins the Democratic Party nomination, what happens to Hillary's massive number of passionate followers? Don't assume that they'll vote for Obama, end of year. No, no, no, no.

Understand this: Many people do not vote for a candidate, they vote against the other candidate. Negative voters, I call them. Consider this: many people did not vote for Raila per se, they voted against Kibaki, his clique and Kikuyus in general on Dec 27.

Many of Hillary's supporters are actually Obama's opponents, nothing more. They think he's inexperienced and hey, he's black, or at least a "Pointi." If Obama wins the nomination, they will cross over to the Republican side during the general election. In a 50-50 contest, that is a nightmare for the grandson of Kendu Bay.

McCain faces no such bad dreams. With a nomination victory margin of around 82-18, the behaviour of that 18% cannot bother him at all during the general election.

If Hillary wins, should she worry about how Obama's supporters will vote? In this case, the race factor may help her. Obama's disappointed supporters may feel more comfortable with her than with the Republicans. This may giver her the edge, in fact more than an "edge" -- a massive boost.

Obama's charisma and oratory skills give him the tools needed to fight any outflux of democrats to the Republican side in the event of nomination, but he'll be walking uphill. His two negating factors -- inexperienced and black -- may weigh against him.