[Sadik]

Man R

I am not sure if Raila would join SDP. The reason being SDP is dying out, anyway. But I am sure Raila has a strong Luo backing,and in extension the Country, and if he were to stand on KANU nominations, he would be a strong favourite, whatever Moi thinks.

I see Raila sticking in KANU, and standing as its presidential candidate. If Raila were to form a "new" party or move to another, e.g SDP, he may lose the strong footing he has in Nyanza and he knows it. See, talking of the general election, the Luo vote is hopelessly divided. The way things are, one can say that Shem Ochuodho will definitely get the votes from Southern Nyanza. Central Nyanza will be divided between Donde, Raila and Orengo. Kisii and Nyamira has Nyachae.

So to get South Nyanza votes from Ochuodho, Raila must stay in KANU. South Nyanza are loyal to KANU ever since Tom Mboya, and later on John Okwanyo, a vote Ochuodho depends on for his presidential support. Raila in KANU may also get some vote from the Kisiis, some of whom vote usually to the party, areas like Obure's and Mandoka's constituencies. And to get votes from Central Nyanza, Raila may need to convince Orengo and Donde not to stand. Well, Donde is a "light-weight", and Raila may not be very concerned about him, but he MUST be concerned about Orengo. So to get him to support his campaign Raila needs to win Orengo over. He can only do that if he is very friendly to him, and I believe that is what he is doing, creating affiliation and friendship with Orengo.