I had posted this earlier... I have not received a satisfactory answer, yet.
Please help!
VWAP (Click on the link)
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16 items tagged "Review"
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11:52
VWAP (on the NSE pricelist) - Please help me!
» Rants, Raves & Reviews -
Olympia Capital Holdings Rights Offer - Queries Part 1
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Since I posted the earlier blog entry, I have been approached by various readers to explain more about OCHL & its Rights Offer. Due to time constraints, I will address 1-2 issues/topics/questions at a time. Leave the questions in the comments section rather than e-mailing them to me so others may answer/comment on your queries.
The information below is derived from the Information Memorandum. Please download the IM & read it for additional details/information. This is a document the CMA requires firms to produce & should be read by any investor who wants to participate in OCHL's Rights Offer. My comments are in RED.
PURPOSE OF THE RIGHTS ISSUE
The purpose of the Rights Issue is to raise long term funds totaling to an amount of Kshs. 420,000,000 for the following:-
1.To increase OCHL shareholding in OCCL, an associate company listed on the Botswana Stock Exchange.
OCHL used to own 53% of OCCL(Botswana) until April 2007 when OCHL did not participate in OCCL(B)'s Rights Offer. This reduced the ownership to 26%. The reason for the non-participation was the unavailability of funds to buy OCC(B) Rights. OCHL wants to buy 27% of OCCL(B) to equal a shareholding of 50%+ of OCC(B) in order to consolidate the financials.
ii. To fund potential business acquisitions in Kenya. OCHL is already in preliminary discussions with two Kenyan manufacturing companies. This is a strategic move that is going to bring a strong presence of the company in the local manufacturing market to compliment that of local subsidiary.
It should be complement (not compliment) but that aside, OCHL is looking at expanding its footprint in Kenya but acquiring firms in the building industry. Most Kenyan firms in this sector are importers not manufacturers.
OCHL will also undertake marketing of 'Window Accessories" (products of Plush-Yokota) in Kenya through Dunlop Industries Limited.
iii. To fund acquisitions and mergers in South Africa, where the current value chain in the retail housing sector is not complete and the company is forced to partner with others in order to market and sell its products. Therefore to reduce the cost of business and increase trading margins, the company is looking to acquire/merge with companies that can complement the current businesses in both Botswana and South Africa.
OCHL's management has consistently declared their preference for the S.African market which is much larger than Kenya's market. S.Africa & Botswana are part of SADDC that allows for preferential treatment of goods & services within SADDC.
OCC(B)'s involvement is through a PVC tile manufacturing plant (Kalahari Floor Tiles) & window accessories manufacturing & sales (Plush-Yokota). These firms also have "side" businesses including chemicals, uPVC windows & shower doors.
Expansion is likely to be in similar industries i.e home improvement & building materials.
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Olympia Capital Holdings - Rights Offer
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd launched their Rights Offer on 3 September 2007. The following link is courtesy of www.mystocks.co.ke
First a plug for MyStocks (no, they do not pay me...)
www.mystocks.co.ke
They have the BEST site out there if you are looking for information & tools on Kenyan stocks. I have used stockskenya, hisanet, etc but mystocks has information & tools I have not found elsewhere.
Mystocks has a relationship with mediacorp who supplied free access to the live stream. I think the "free" days are coming to an end soon. Apparently, the NSE charges the data vendors $2,500/month & it will rise to $5,000/month from 1 Jan 2008.
Anyway, try out the graphing tools which also account for splits & bonuses.
Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd website
Olympia Capital Holdings Limited Memorandum of Information for the Rights Offer in 2007
Basic Info on OCHL:- Rights Offer of 30mn shares at 14/- each = KShs 420mn
- Owns 26% of Olympia Capital (Botswana)
- OCC(B) owns 76% of Plush-Yokota (S.Africa)
- Year-end is 28 Feb 2008
Actually their website and memorandum has far more details than what I can reproduce here. -
Olympia Capital Holdings Rights Offer
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Hey! Olympia Capital has a website! This is a recent but welcome development. Better late then never. I hope they keep it up-to-date.
All listed companies should have at least a basic website where we can get information on them.
Olympia Capital Holdings (Kenya) Website
Plush-Yokota Website
(Plush-Yokota is the S.African firm Olympia Capital Corp (Botswana) acquired in November 2006).
Since the Olympia shares are trading Ex-Rights which means buying the shares does not entitle you to receiving Rights. Nevertheless, you do own part of the company. And one can sell these shares at any time during the Rights Offer as well as before the "new" shares are issued.
More details later! -
What is "Variable Weighted Average Price"
» Rants, Raves & Reviews The NSE provides a VWAP on their price list. Click here to go to their website to download a pricelist. The link is located on the left side.
I was informed (right or wrong) that the "V" stands for "Variable"...
I know what a Weighted Average Price is but if WAP is variable then what good is the WAP????
Does anyone know for sure HOW the NSE calculates the VWAP?
Will a Math major... or anyone else please help me out! I googled the term but came up with nothing that included the "variable"...
Or is this Kenyan style math where:
Politician( aka pig/GOK/GOK employee/FOK/moi) receives 100/- but the mwananchi/project receives 10/- but the politician (& his cohorts) crow how the project received the full allocation.
To recap how Kenyan math works 100=10.
Back to "V"WAP... erm, please explain to me what it means! -
More small cars coming our way from India...
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Wow... it is amazing how far India has progressed since 1980 vs most African countries... But as usual I shall concentrate on Kenya...
This is a slideshow about Indian car manufacturers & "small" cars...
India used to be thought of as an over-populated backward country but the changes there are amazing. The problems are still there but the economic progress is outstanding.
I pick India, not China, as a model Kenya should emulate (the GOOD not the bad) since Kenya, like India, has a (flawed) democracy. China is a totalitarian state Kenyans will & should not embrace.
Furthermore, India faces many issues/problems that mirror those of African countries including a burgeoning population, poverty, corruption & a monolithic bureaucracy.
So, what can we learn from India (the GOOD not the bad!)?- Privatisation - India is moving from a socialist mindset to a capitalist mindset. Some may argue that India has alway been a dyed-in-the-wool capitalist nation. Well so was most of pre-colonial Africa. The largest Indian firms are PRIVATE enterprises/groups including Reliance, Tata, Birla, Wipro, etc. Many state owned firms are being privatised as competition sets in. (Kenya is doing well on this aspect esp after Kibaki came to power. I hope the trend continues).
- Technocratic appointments - Manmohan Singh (PM) was a technocrat who was appointed as Finance Minister in the 1980s. And then give them a free hand. The "Dream Team" of the 1990s was a good idea but derailed when they did not kiss moi's ass. (Sigh... Kenya could do much better in this respect. Political appointments rule the day not merit. Then add underworked but overpaid assistant ministers to this mix!).
- De-tribalisation - India has more issues/problems than Kenya regarding "tribes", religions & castes. Nevertheless, there has been a slow but steady growth in those who don't care about these matters. And it starts from the top. Rajiv Gandhi married Sonia (an Italian). Indira Gandhi (a Hindu) married a Feroz (a Parsi). There are many other examples that are not widely known. The CEO of BioCon is Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw. Kiran is India's richest woman & married to a Scot. (Kenya is doing poor in this regard especially when the populace is intent on electing their "own" regardless of merit. The good news is that the urban youth are not swayed as much but the rural - ethnic - vote exceeds the urban vote. Raila's son, Castro, is married to a Kikuyu girl! But will this turn into votes for him?)
- Women empowerment - Even though women are often treated as second-class citizens, India's current president is a woman. India's kingmaker is also a woman (Sonia Gandhi). Indira Gandhi was the PM for many years. Many of the states have Chief Ministers who are women. (Kenya has women politicians (karua, ojiambo, ndungu, etc) but except for Wangari Mathaai, I do not see these politicians agitating for the common woman. Campaigning for another 40 "special" seats does not count. What about the 17,000,000 other girls & women? And why do women who constitute 50% of the population need special treatment? If the women ganged up, they could elect a woman president as well as the majority in parliament!)
- Domestic Market - Indian firms export BUT the domestic market is important. Indians support local firms. Even Coke had a tough time when many Indian favoured the local "Thums Up" over "Coca-Cola". (I am embarrassed when I see imported butter & eggs in Kenyan supermarkets!!! Yet we have KCC among other firms exporting dairy products to the Middle East. We import canned "Heinz" beans & "Ceres" juices whereas we have local firms producing the same /similar goods! Kenyans' obsession with imports is pathetic!
- Spread e-government - India has spread government's reach to embrace substantial portions of the population through technology. The kids are becoming the teachers in many villages. The trend is fueled by examples/idols ranging from billionaires like Azim Premji of Wipro among others. India's huge BPO industry is pushing technology into the villages. (Kenya has been talking the talk but not walking the walk regarding technology. We need to employ savvier professionals who can spearhead e-government. Credit to Kimunya among others who are driving the computerisation process. But we need to do more, sooner.)
- India has embarked on connecting the corners of the country with expressways. The idea is to boost trade as well as encourage exports & efficiencies. The rail network has great coverage all over India. (Kenya does not have a decent highway across the country. The Nairobi-Mombasa highway is a veritable mess. Nairobi-Kisumu is even worse. Imagine the possibilities if we had a decent North-South highway from Namanga to Lokichoggio AND a 4-lane decent highway from Mombasa-Kisumu. Our cross-border trade with S. Sudan & Uganda would show strong gains as would Kenyan domestic tourism).
- Privatisation - India is moving from a socialist mindset to a capitalist mindset. Some may argue that India has alway been a dyed-in-the-wool capitalist nation. Well so was most of pre-colonial Africa. The largest Indian firms are PRIVATE enterprises/groups including Reliance, Tata, Birla, Wipro, etc. Many state owned firms are being privatised as competition sets in. (Kenya is doing well on this aspect esp after Kibaki came to power. I hope the trend continues).
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Cheetahs vs Hippos
» Rants, Raves & Reviews [myafricatoday.blogspot.com]
The Government of Kenya (or some idiots within it) were "insulted" when an article in The Economist referred to "new" Africans as Cheetahs vs the "old, corrupt, status-quo' Africans as Hippos.
So the IDIOTS canceled an important meeting/conference the Economist was going to hold in Nairobi in view of the Economist's article. It turns out it was an AFRICAN (George Ayittey) made a great speech on why he believes in Africa & referred to Cheetahs & Hippos!
He also argues that Capitalism was integral to ancient African communities. The marketplaces e.g. Timbuktu was a marketplace. What the "Hippos" introduced as "Socialism" (including African Socialism as attempted in Kenya or Tanzania) was a form of "Swiss-bank Socialism" for the Hippos.
Anyway, here is his definition paraphrased.
The Cheetah Generation - made up of the youth, specifically the TED Fellows present here, the saviors of Africa who are not going to wait for government and aid organizations to do things for them.
The Hippo Generation - the current political and business leaders who are happy to wallow in their water holes, complaining about colonialism and poverty, but doing nothing about it.
Here are some sources of information on George Ayittey's speech.
White African
TED
Where are the Hippos? -
Olympia Capital Holdings announces Rights price...
» Rants, Raves & Reviews OCHL has announced the Rights price at 14/- per share. I was expecting 10/- but the 14/- is a 30% discount to the current market price of 20/-.
The shares should trade Cum Rights for a few days until they trade Ex-rights but that need to be decided by the CMA, NSE & OCHL.
OCHL would raise a (gross) KShs 420mn if all the shares are taken up. The current "excess liquidity" on the NSE may bode well for them since the KenRe IPO was over-subscribed & the refunds should start flowing in soon. -
Nakumatt eyes Ugandan chain?
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Considering Nakumatt's expansion plans across E&C Africa as well as its intention of going public in 2009... this seems an ideal opportunity to expand & gain instant market share in Uganda .
Uchumi has one branch in Kampala but can ill-afford to expand further... After what seems to be another failed attempt to raise additional funds from existing shareholders, it may have to shut down OR find a strategic investor to turn it around.
And just 10 years ago, Uchumi Supermarkets was one of Kenya's most profitable firms, under the then MD - Suresh Shah, paying hefty dividends... but it went downhill fast after chris kirubi & company took over...
That opened the door for the rapid expansion of Nakumatt since many suppliers quit supplying Uchumi. Even though Uchumi has a branch in Kampala, the continuing inancial problems at home will affect them in Uganda... whereas Nakumatt is raring to expand in East Africa.
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7:07
Malooned-- the movie
» Kenya Imagine Noel Opoti writes a review on the recently released Kenyan movie.
At first, the plot may seem really lame, the whole movie was set in one scene and it's hard to get past this if you have already watched the trailer. However, as the movie snakes along you begin to appreciate the creativity and effort put into making the movie.
Read more here.
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Business Process Outsourcing...
» Rants, Raves & Reviews So Kenya wants to be a prime candidate for the BPO industry... Well, a lot needs to be done and only a concerted effort by the private sector aided by the public sector will do...
Other Bangalore Wannabes (from Business Week)
Mauritius has a leg up on Kenya with better communications, bilingual population, tie with Indian firms (Infosys has already set up in the country) & enlightened leadership.
Other Anglophone countries that are in the market for additional business are Sri Lanka & Pakistan. In addition, the proximity to India (#1 BPO centre) makes the transition easier. The Philippines is another country with a substantial BPO sector. All the countries above also have a decent base to recruit IT graduates.
Senegal restructured its telecom network to tap into the Francophone BPO sector. -
So Kenya wants to be a prime candidate for the BPO...
» Rants, Raves & Reviews So Kenya wants to be a prime candidate for the BPO industry... Well, a lot needs to be done and only a concerted effort by the private sector aided by the public sector will do...
Other Bangalore Wannabes (from Business Week) -
One-Term President... a solution to Kenya's political crisis?
» Rants, Raves & Reviews We should limit Kenyan Presidential terms to ONE TERM... yes... perhaps the term might be a little longer...
Proposal: A 7-year term that enables the incumbent to concentrate on Kenya & Kenyans. Not on his/her re-election bid & political power games!
Why:- Fairly good presidents can get sucked into bad political schemes that tarnish even otherwise decent presidents e.g. Kibz, who seems to have done a fairly decent economic job, has re-appointed most of the ministers tainted by anglo-fleecing!!! Perhaps this is a result of the desire to bring in votes from various tribes... fronted by these politicians?
- Politicking by incumbents wastes time & money e.g. Most of 2007 has/will be spent politicking by kibz especially if he wants to stand for re-election.
- Limiting the term to 7 years will encourage presidents to leave (good) legacies. They could remain out of the pig-sty since, well, they are already at the top of the dog-pile!!!
- A one-term president has greater immunity (or a thicker skin) to political kingmakers & manipulators.
- There is the fear that some presidents will rig the elections to elect their proteges but this is no different from the current suituation e.g. Nigeria's Obasanjo favouring Yar'Adua.
- No fear of not being (re)elected provides a sense of hubris but the parliament retains the power to impeach.
- If the president dies or resigns without completing his term, they can be replaced by the Vice-President pending new elections &/or some mechanism of succession. We can use the USA model where the VP becomes the prez for the remainder of the term. An alternate is to have pre-set limits depending on when the transfer of power takes place.
- We might lose a competent president who we want to run again but there are many smart competent Kenyans. We need new blood, new ideas & accountability.
- Too many presidents on our payroll! But this is mitigated by fewer presidents serving a mere one term lasting 5 years! Hopefully, some of these presidents will take up international roles e.g. UN appointments, etc. Kenya should lobby for these positions on condition the presidents so appointed/elected to these bodies "give" up their GOK salaries/pensions for the term of employment with the UN, etc.
Politicians are like nappies, they need to be changed often or they start stinking. -
NBK 1H 2007 Results
» Rants, Raves & Reviews So what does all this mean?
Is NBK out of the woods?
The net interest income has significantly dropped in 2H 2007. As Marambii opined earlier during the AGM that the GOK was being charged interest at 15% which was a great rate by all means! But will now receive a lower rate. This will be a drag on earnings.
The largest gain is from the reduction of Loan Loss Provisions... Hmmm... what it means is that NBK with the "assent" of the CBK did not fully provide for these dud loans!
NBK claims it has enough securities to cover the "open" bad loans i.e. loans not provided for thus they do not see that as a problem. Of course, in Kenya, it means a lengthy court process to get much out of defaulters.
Nevertheless, NBK can start growing by pursuing new lending. The challenge will be how to deploy the Billions that the GOK will repay NBK. Who to lend to? At what rate? At what risk level?
The GOK & NSSF hold preference shares & I expect they will demand Preferred dividend payments if NBK pays Ordinary dividends.
The options to mitigate this are:- Negotiate a conversion from Preferred Shares to Ordinary Shares which would dilute the current shareholders' stake.
- Pay off the GOK by exchanging the T-Bonds for the Preference shares but this will result in reduced income.
Stanbic remains a suitor but 2 years down the line since CFC-Stanbic caters to the middle market but does not give Stanbic the heft it wants across all sectors of the economy. NBK's reach among the masses is probably #3 behind Equity & KCB.
There is a distinct possibility of a Nigerian bank taking a stake in NBK as they expand across Africa. - Negotiate a conversion from Preferred Shares to Ordinary Shares which would dilute the current shareholders' stake.
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AccessKenya IPO/OFS - Last Day
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Raging debates on www.stockskenya.com... Unlike prior discussions, there is more of substance being discussed...
I will not discuss the specifics since the fundamentals are based on POTENTIAL not the assets or current financial state of the firm.
(My) Bottomline:- Not cheap on a NAV or PE basis.
- Growth will continue for next 3 years.
- Cash out by Somens not a good indicator (OFS of 35mn shares).
- Growth will be at lower net margins.
- Expansion is a strong possibility into the region by acquisitions
- Corporate market prefers RELIABILITY over (cheapest) price. As long as Access Kenya delivers RELIABILITY there is great potential among the MNCs & SMEs.
- Cheaper bandwidth (TEAMS, Eassy) will boost usage.
- Increased use by government organisations will boost usage & sales.
- No debt plus IPO cash (KShs 426mn)to be used to boost service, sales & customer service.
- Somens want to increase the "value" of their shares so expect their dedication coz I think there will be a merger &/or sale of the AK (as we know it) to someone else!
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Kenya 2030 - Service Economy Superstar?
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Kenya has the potential (yes, that word again...) to become the African Superstar of the service industry.
After reading Kenyan Entrepreneur's blog entry on "niches" & "creativity" I think Kenya needs to find a niche... that niche is providing services to primarily Africa(ns) and beyond.
University Education & Research- We don't need to send KShs "Billions" to Australia, USA, Malaysia or the UK for tertiary education when we can/should set up WORLD-CLASS universities in collaboration with top-notch universities, departments or research centers around the world. Singapore & Dubai have done it. So can we.
- The cost of living in Nairobi is much lower than S.Africa, Dubai or the UK. In addition, it is cheaper for African students to fly to/fro from Nairobi than many of the other cities.
- We can attract students from Africa while providing Kenyans with jobs (lecturers, clerks, janitors, etc). These students become ambassadors for Kenyan universities. This has bee proven time & again by American universities' African alumni.
- We can attract African talent to these universities & think tanks to provide African solutions to Africa's problems. They understand Kenya's problems as we understand theirs. This allows for collaboration of peers.
- Networking opportunities arise from the interaction of African professionals that allow the expansion of inter-African commerce. It is a fact that "connections" spurs investments. The connotation is not about "corruption" but "connections" between classmates.
- Kenyans spend KShs "Billions" on treatments abroad. Our so-called "leaders" lead the way to more waste of funds... kibz went to UK, dan moi recently went to Germany. All the "heart" operations that are done abroad since we lack the facilities. The less well-heeled go to S.Africa & India.
- Medical facilities will encourage research that can boost Kenya's stature beyond the HIV & Malaria programs.
- Kenya has 2 medical schools & can expand its facilities to ensure we produce more doctors. We can then keep them in Kenya instead of "exporting" them to UK, USA or Australia!
- Kenya "exports" nurses to UK. We can keep them in Kenya by offering them better opportunities within Kenya!
- India has taken up the concept of "Medical Tourism" with gusto & it is a major growth industry for them. The benefits of Medical Tourism then flow to the rest of the population as the latest technology is used & personnel trained.
- Nairobi has become the premier airline hub for the East, Central & West Africa region - multiple carriers e.g. KQ - with the necessary connections to Nairobi. Kenya can effectively compete against S.Africa to become the preferred choice for medical treatment.
- The medical per capita "spend" is much higher than regular tourism! Of course, the patients' guests/visitors might tour other "touristy" locations e.g. Game Parks.
- The knock-on benefits for Kenya's construction sector, industrial (e.g. BOC Gases), education sector (nurses, doctors, technicians), agriculture (food, flowers) & tourism (relatives, friends visiting parks) are tremendous.
- We can capture some of the growing BPO market from India or complement India.
- There is need for BPO services for many African countries as these countries' economies expand.
- The fiber-optic broadband systems (planned) could substantially reduce the cost of telecommunications between African countries.
- Kenya needs to expand language classes in German, Italian & French since these countries may not be effectively served by India.
Problems & Challenges for the Service Economy
Insecurity
Kenya needs to work on the high levels of insecurity prevalent today.- Being "poor" is no excuse for being a thief. And being a violent thief is worse!
- I support brutal suppression of the "violent" elements. Yes, it will not be popular with the "human rights" folks but I would rather a thief is killed than my near & dear hurt. That's my opinion... What about my Rights to enjoy my hard-earned cash & life?
- My "little finger" is more important to me than the life of a violent thief! I would rather the police kill the thug/crook/thief before a single hair on my head is harmed.
- We need a 24-hour "economy" especially if we want to serve the BPO market in the USA.
- JKIA's utilization can increase substantially if insecurity is not an issue since the travelers may start their journeys much earlier & fly in much later.
- The transport industry - using lorries - can be boosted if these carriers move goods at night without fear. This means that the roads are "clear" for passenger & tourist traffic during the day!
- Despite advances in telecommunications, the cost of phone calls remain much higher than necessary. We need more competitors as well as increased "openness" for them then operate effectively.
- Data costs too much to access. Hopefully, the government will get its act together or allow private firms to lay fiber-optic cables all over the country (without onerous conditions/permits/fees) as well as international connections.
- Progress has been made with EaSSy & TEAMS but the there have been too many delays.
- Political & ethnic conflicts (esp violent clashes) e.g. Mt. Elgon clashes in 2007 need to be stopped asap. Even if it requires a military response. Nevertheless, the cause roots need to be examined.
- Property rights should be supreme. Kenya should not succumb to a "tribal" or "nationalistic" tendency that tramples on Human Rights that will dissuade further investments & aggravate poverty e.g. mugabe's antics in Zimbabwe.
- Politics seem to be a 24/7 obssession with Kenyans. No wonder we remain poor since "talking politics' takes precedence over "work productivity".
- Kenyans spend less time working, even at their jobs, than discussing politics!
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