Continuing the popular Where to buy shares series, my long-time stockbroker CFC (actually CFCFS) have finally unveiled an online trading and account/portfolio platform. It’s quite good so far, quick registration, easy navigation, and hopefully a secure one. I hope they add share reports, and other useful tips which they can e-mail to users.

My portfolio is correctly displayed and I will make my next trades online (previously I used to e-mail my orders, and get confirmations and statements back by e-mail)

Other brokers with online features (can’t vouch for their quality) include Afrika Discount Drummond Dyer & Blair, Faida and Sterling

Questions
1. What are you online experiences like with your Kenyan stockbrokers?
2. Have any Kenyans in the Diaspora got their Safaricom IPO refunds, or been able to apply them to buy other shares? Have you seen your refund cheques, or know where they are?

Safaricom@NSE Day 47: Safaricom dips below the IPO price, touching 4.95 before settling at 5.15 on almost 17 million shares traded

Safaricom needs a reverse stock split to get rid of their unhappy shareholders.
- Anyone who has less than 10,000 shares by December should be paid off by the Government or Vodafone at the IPO price of 5 shillings or market price, whichever is lower at the end of the year. Investors will not sell their shares at a loss and the least they can do is recoup their money from this mess (excluding their loans)

Kenol tweak: 36.67 million shares change hands worth 3.3 billion shillings on Friday. Meanwhile kenol/kobil stations have the most expensive fuel in Nairobi. Diesel has hit 101 shilling per litre ($1.55), while petrol is at 108, that’s about 6 shillings more than my station of choice.

Cola tweak: After enduring a difficult first quarter, coca cola is having a bit of a tumble in the second quarter due to to EABL’s Alvaro – at least in urban areas where it has become the non-alcoholic drink of choice for many previous soda (and juice) sippers. Coke has unleashed another multi-million shilling giveaway promotion to win back customers


alvaro cases at Nakumatt

Celtel tweak - More celtel confusion; The ink is not dry on posters for their newest promotion and already the terms have changed (for the better) [for customers to get free calls will now cost 65/= ($1) a day down from 99/=].

August will be a significant month for the mobile sector as Celtel switches to the Zain brand, Safaricom release their first quarterly results after the IPO, and Econet should finaly/hopefuly roll out operations.

Media tweaks: All journalists and correspondents practicing in Kenya must be registered with the Media Council of Kenya – and to do so they must each pay Kshs. 2,000, while foreign journalists will have to pay 10,000 ($154) per year [those on short term assignment of up to 3 months pay 5,000]. Amounts due by 30/9. Television radio and newspaper organizations also have to pay a quarterly fee depending on the number of media outlets

- Standard tweaks Two weeks after the launch of the new Standard, their strap line of the standard has changed;


new standard at launch


standard yesterday

Sunday Nation tweaks now has the best of best of Whispers - favorite columns of the late humorist Wahome Mutahi and some articles of the New York Times

From the blogs
- Pointer for Access Kenya shareholders to read
- There are only 60 lions (adult) in the Mara – but that's an improvement by 50% from year 2001
- How bad are things for those who took IPO loans for Safaricom? Ssembonge shows that small investors are hurting more than bigger borrowers.
- Cautionary tales on life insurance from Tujuane
- Peer pressure: tales of GDP growth of rates of 8% in Ghana and
21% in Angola
- Link to a puff piece in memory of the former finance minister
-US Airways to remove all in-seat movies from their planes, while Emirates is targeting to remove all paper (in-flight magazines and publications) to save a ton of weight on the new A380 (to compensate for a ton of water for showers in first class (from airliners.net)

Opportunities

African Banker Awards. deadline for nominations if 31 July in the following categories: African Banker of the Year, African Bank of the Year, African Investment Bank, Best Development Bank in Africa, African Microfinance Bank, Best Issuing House, Most Innovative Bank, Deal of the Year, Socially Responsible Bank of the Year, Best Global Bank in Africa, Award for Gender Sensitivity

Jobs
from the daily papers last week
- Aircraft Leasing Services: captains, first officers for Embarer 135. als@als.co.ke
- HR director at Housing Finance. Apply through deloitte esd@deloitte.co.ke by 1/8
- MD of KCB Rwanda. Apply to recruitement@kcb.co.ke by 8/8
- KPMG Uganda: Internal Audit Services manager, Senior Internal Auditor, Internal auditor, forensic auditors. Apply to talentrecruit@kpmg.co.ke by 1/8
- Corporate affairs manager of Nation media group.
- Independent sales agents at Standard Chartered Bank. Apply to Susan.Ombati@ke.standardchartered.com by 31/7

Others vacancies at Kencall, Kenya Airways, and Family Bank [Credit officer, Procurement Officer, Works Officer, Accountant, Accounts Assistant, Administrative Assistant, Assistant Manager, Audit Manager, Branch Accountant]

Beach plots too good to be true? Lots of land available in Mombasa for real estate investment from Datkit agents including 3 acres creek in new Nyali with 120m sea frontage, 1.3 acres over looking Nyali golf club, 5 acre lots in kikambala, 14 acre beach plot next to Neptune beach, 25 acre beach plot next to kaskazi hotel with 168m beach front, 1/3 acre residential plots in shanzu (2nd row from beach)

Safaricom IPO Day 30: Deals 1,297, Turnover Kshs. 257.9 million [$3.9 million] Average 6.23 High 6.60 Low 5.95 Last 6.20 Volume 41.4 million shares. Feels and smells like a bear raid. [Commentary and data from Rich.co.ke - NSE data vendor, with Free real time prices between 0930 -1500]

- What is the role of Morgan Stanley in the price of Safaricom?

- How about a reverse stock split of Safaricom to weed out 2/3 of the unhappy 800,000 shareholders and get a manageable share register?

End of day update - Turnover Kshs. 450.4 million ($6.92 m), Average 6.20 High 6.60 Low 5.95 Volume 72.5 million shares. Rich.co.ke commentary; A very weak session. The article in Business Daily, a large trade on the prompt board at 6.20 all pushed this market over. It was all so fortuitous and coincidental to be quite remarkable. The price is undervalued here by a wide margin.

CDSC: The Central Depository System Corporation (CDSC) has now rolled out their SMS alert service to inform investors of trades within their accounts, and hopefully alert investors of unauthorized trades by rogue brokers

Investors can check their CDSC (amazingly, they still have no website as yet) balances by registering through either (i) in person at 10th floor Nation Center or (ii) sending an SMS formatted “REG*CDS A/C No.*ID No.” to 2372 - to receive an alias and Pin No.

Investors can then use the service to access (i) portfolio balance, (ii) view a mini statement (of last 5 trades) (iii) receive alerts of each trade [by sending an “alerts on” message to 2372] or (iv) change PIN. (each CDSC SMS costs 10 shillings - ~$0.15) [more from helpdesk@cdsckenya]

NCWSC: The Nairobi City Water & Sewerage Company have followed in the footsteps of the KPLC to introduce an SMS facility where customers can check their water bills by phone SMS. Simply send a message with account number to the number 5571, and receipt of a balance message costs 15 shillings. While The company is not as aggressive in cutting off subscribers with arrears as KPLC, their bills through the regular mail are rare and infrequenet, and so SMS is a good way to know your balance and due date.

For electricity bills from KPLC, queries cost 10 shillings by SMS, but are free by e-mail.

Mobile XL: report on a value addition SMS and chat application.

A couple of Banks offer SMS banking facilities, but the value addition is questionable given the cost [30/= per query]. Online banking for corporations seems a more viable option

And finally, most dear to every investor now is the use of SMS to trace Safaricom IPO refunds and allocation:
- For IPO allocation; message is “CDS.no#ID.no#A” to 4009
- For refund cheque location; message is “CDS.no#ID.no#R” to 4009
each SMS costs 15/=
- if no message, chances are your (rogue) broker did not buy shares for you

Safaricom IPO Day 24: Commentary - Strong market rebound. Someone is buying everything up below 7.00. We have based out. Deals 3,070 Turnover 305.67 million [$4.63 m] Average 6.94 High 7.00 Low 6.80 Last7.00 Volume 44 million shares Commentary and data from Rich.co.ke - NSE data vendor [with Free real time prices between 0930 -1500]

End of day : 64.65 million Shares, closing at 6.95 (up 2.2%)

Celtel Kenya gets a new CEO (7th?) [Rene Meza from Paraguay] as Celtel wins an award for best telecoms operator in Africa at the 2008 Business in Africa Awards held in London.

Rift Valley Railways gets two new shareholders [Prime Fuels and Mirambo Holdings]. Meanwhile both Kenya and Uganda governments are getting impatient and workers went on strike [they have now just got their June salaries]

The Vision 2030 Delivery Secretariat is seeking - director general, directors [social & political pillars, enablers & macro, economic pillar, and Strategy, marketing, empowerment and communication] chief officer [monitoring and evaluation] officer [project finance] project accountant, executive secretary. apply to psplanning@planning.go.ke by 31/7

[EDIT – at the end of the session, members of parliament passed a motion of censure against the Minister for Finance – Amos Kimunya, MP for Kipipiri]

Live on TV - all stations

Is the debate to censure Finance Minister Amos Kimunya for his role in the controversial sale of the Grand Regency Hotel.

Before a rather hostile opposition side, He’s just given a statement where he:

- Outlined his long history as an accountant and a crusader for reforms, revenue gains and tax savings for the Kenyan people numerous times such as with De La Rue, pending contractor bills, Safaricom, Telkom Kenya
- On Safaricom. Mobietelea was there long before he was in government or parliament
- On Alcazar - reputed owner of 11% in Safaricom – he says after Vodafone (K) and the Kenya government, no one else owns more than 1% of the company (after the IPO)
- On the Grand Regency Hotel: it was sold for $45 million {~ billion shillings} in May 2008
- The central bank made the sale and was not under duress.
- The ministry of lands, attorney generals office, prime ministers’ office have all received various reports
- More info forthcoming tomorrow

Safaricom IPO
Day 18 - Deals 5,266 Turnover 439, million ($6.86) million Ave 7.29 Closing 7.25 High 7.50 Low 7.20 Last 7.30 Volume 60.3 million shares - Market still absorbing supply but its very well supported at these levels. The move higher depends on how much more de-leveraging has to be done.

Day 17 - Deals 4,671 Turnover 302 million ($4.7 million) 7.35 High 7.50 Low 7.25 Last volume of 41 million shares - orderly and some sellers came off 7.50 to sell lower. Strong demand at 7.25. Remains constructive. 6.65-8.15 range.
commentary and data courtesy of Rich.co.ke - N.S.E Data Vendor

This started out as a post on DRIP’s – but went on to become a ramble about other drips (leaking taps) where small/retail shareholders and their companies lose hundreds of shillings individually and collectively lose millions of shillings from the investment fund pools in a vicious circle:

(a) DRIP’s are automatic dividend reinvestment programs. They are available in advanced financial markets and enable dividend cheques to be automatically re-applied to buy shares in the company - this would be very useful for the nearly 100,000 shareholders of Eveready who got 60 shilling ($0.93) dividend cheques this year that may cost more to clear than they are worth (the amount is so small, KRA can’t get their 5% withholding tax) local alternatives/solutions - small dividend cheques can be (i) processed through DRIP’s or (ii) Companies like Scangroup now have an arrangement where dividend cheques under 10,000 shillings can be cashed over the counter at no charge to investors at any Equity Bank branch. Shame that KCB branches doesn’t allow the same for their own dividend cheques (iii) More NSE companies should push for DRIP clauses for their owners (shareholders) as vigilantly as they do on corporate issues for their own employees (ESOP’s) and the Government (unclaimed dividends).

(b) Post-Safaricom Drip
big leaks
(i) There are investors who got no shares in the IPO because their stockbrokers did not place their orders, misplaced them, or for some other unthinkable (and perhaps sinister) reason. They are now chasing refunds of idle funds that have missed many opportunities over the last three months
(ii) There are investors who got 21% allocation, but because they took bank loans for the IPO, now owe the banks more than their shares are worth (and whose price is sliding). In addition to being charged interest, they have to pay for loan statements, transfers, and other fees for many months - and most can’t sell their shares until they pay off the loans.
(iii) The banking sector whose rules on Safaricom IPO refunds seem to change every other day – from forcing people without bank accounts to open accounts to receive their money (there was no obligation going into the IPO, so why should there be coming out? to not allowing encashment of IPO cheques (a DRIP formula would have been handy here) , to specifying which banks people could encash their cheques. solution M-Pesa the cash to investors - which was a clause in the initial IPO prospectus and would have boosted Safaricom’s 2009 revenue and profits
(iv) The Capital Markets Authority has imposed a Kshs. 1,000 charge ($15) for every transfer/consolidation of shares. This fee will be borne by thousands of Safaricom investors when they eventually pay off their bank loans

(c) Companies Laws & Registrars:
(i) Stale dividends: Thanks to vague laws that don’t specify how long companies can take between the time they announce dividends and eventually pay them. It’s so long that some companies may not be able to afford the dividends they announced months ago as they are still recovering from post-election events.
(ii) Company Registrars: NSE companies complain about having too many shareholders and the cost of mailing them accounts each year. The KCB rights issue is on now and I have received five copies in the mail in the last week. So how many of KCB’s 150,000 shareholders are genuinely different? Many times the problem is borne out of IPO’s where people apply in multiple names and accounts in the hype hope of getting higher allocations. But once the euphoria dies down, and after chasing numerous refund cheques, they forget or make no effort to consolidate their accounts. This leads to them getting five smaller dividend cheques and five sets of accounts - which are very expensive for the company to mail out to every shareholder. There are also another class of (reluctant) shareholders - who sold some of their shares, but because of the minimum trade lot order amounts (100 shares minimum per trade) are now left with a balance of shares that they can’t sell, get meagre dividends for, but still get the same reports mailed out to them.
local solution/alternatives (i) Allow people to consolidate their accounts with the company registrar (but see b (iv) - the CMA has imposed an additional charge [after the Safaricom IPO] for account consolidation (ii) The NSE/a broker/or agent should set up an odd lots board where investors can sell their small lots of shares – 3, 10, or 50 shares, provided that they are liquidating the entire holding ( I hear one stock agent does this, but would like to hear from more and confirm that they do offer this service) (iii) Proactive share registrars: - who should realize they are sending out 5 bulky letters to the same address, and perhaps initiate a consolidation process with investors (iv) e-mailing of accounts & reports to shareholders: Several companies have amended their laws to allow for e-mail of information - but so far, the only one I have ever received by e-mail was from across the border (Stanbic Uganda).

So there’s a long rambling post; not meant to blame or criticize, but to inspire other ideas and debate. What are your suggestions on other ways to cut costs of serving the small investors?

Other corporates

Safaricom day 14 and 15: After just three weeks of dominating (actually killing) trade at the NSE, the company has been given a waiver to be admitted to the NSE index, punting Serena Hotels (TPSEA)

Friday: Deals 4,858 Turnover Kshs. 564 million ($8.81 million) Average 7.26 High 7.40 Low 7.20 Last 7.30 Volume 77.8 million - Strong session. Very constructive. We based out at 7.05 yesterday [v. positive on the charts because the post listing low was 6.65 and whenever got near there]. We are still witnessing some de-leveraging and therefore, sellers did scatter until half way through yesterday’s session. However, given the turnover since its listing, we must be nearer the end than the beginning of that process.

Thursday: Deals 5,342 Turnover Kshs. 410 million Average 7.29 Closing 7.25 High 7.50 Low 7.05 Last 7.20 Volume 56.2 million - Intra day low was 7.05, but we appear to be basing out. Sellers tipped their hands and chased the market down over the last three sessions. Near term, we have seen the bottom. [Commentary and data provided by Rich.co.ke - Nairobi Stock Exchange Authorized Data Vendor]

Housing drip: the Housing Finance rights issue closed today. I hope they realize their target, but they tried to time it to coincide with Safaricom refunds, with its delays in refunds and clearing cheques, then they got caught up by the KCB rights issue.

No purr? What’s up at Marshals? They have almost 100 vehicles (Kia and Peugeot - whose franchise has ended) vehicles currently at Mombasa Port that the Customs Department wants to auction. At least their former flagship branch in the city (& rumored new PM’s office) on Harambee Avenue has now become a Stanbic Branch.

It’s been a long progression with Safaricom and picture messaging. Started out as a product for post-paid subscribers, and then was made available to pre-paid subscribers at 20 shillings each. It’s now been lowered again to a relatively affordable 5/= ($0.09) which is the same as a regular short text message (SMS)

Safaricom gets flack for its customer service especially for new offerings, but this ones seems to work well. Here are some old pictures sitting in my phone;


Military tank at Athi River railway station: (probably Ugandan-Army bound for Somalia peace-keeping)


Crocodile at Haller Park (Bamburi)
(However, during the daytime, most messages are relegated to a queues and don’t get delivered. Will try it again at night to load more from the phone archives

Safaricom Day 13
Deals 6,276 Turnover Kshs. 519.7 million [$8.12 million] Average 7.58 Closing 7.55 High 7.70 Low price 7.40 Last 7.40 Volume 68.5 million shares. Follow on selling, from yesterday. Sellers tipped their hands. Commentary and data from Rich.co.ke [N.S.E Authorised Data Vendor]

Dear Nairobi Star
Following in M’s footsteps:

To: Nairobi Star
Star life column on June 23
From: Bankelele

I read the Monday Nairobi Star (June 23 2008) which had the popular cost –saving ideas/feature piece.

However I was dismayed to note that the 'free stuff in Nairobi' in 'Star Life' column in the middle pages was lifted word-for-word and point-for-point from a blog post I did two weeks ago.

The Nairobi Star should acknowledge works that you use, and not pass it off as your own

Regards,
Bankelele (http://bankelele.blogspot.com)

Barcamp was held on Saturday at the Jacaranda Hotel: Hash has a list of links to various re-caps from other bloggers.

Here's mine from the ½ day there

ISP's: Riyaz (of Wananchi) gave a talk on the coming changes in the ISP sector, as he talked about the various offering in the market now;
- Safariom Michael Joseph is Mr. Kenya with 10 million ‘voters’ behind him has 700MB that costs 2,000 shillings ($31.25) (Not enough), and other bundles
- Celtel has EDGE for 3,000 not well marketed. Not as good not that it has many more users
- Access Kenya Access at Home has two rates one for day (high traffic costs more) and another for night (much fewer people online, cheaper)
Wananchi offers 512K at 3,000 shared (Not dedicated which costs about 100,000 shillings – and said any ISP who promises you dedicated service at a sub-par costs is lying to consumers). They have Wimax for offices cost about 15,000, are going into cable TV (100+ channels) and will roll out to houses via cable which has higher capacity (separately they got overseas funding for their expansion so no need for a local IPO now )
- KDN have laid out more more fibre than anyone in Kenya, serve a few hotspots but the butterfly does not fly
- Orange/Telkom Kenya. They pay very good salaries to engineers and other members and will roll out data service in a big way soon. They are on CDMA which means that they require fewer base stations (50 in Nairobi to 300 for Celtel and 400 for Safaricom, and will distribute the much awaited I-phone in Kenya and the region

Riyaz mentioned the need for Africa to not miss out on the ongoing technological revolution. He said companies like KDN and Wananchi have free hosting and are ready to partner with developers – he mentioned platforms like Jahazi (a hybrid application accessible from any computer – with chat, news reader and browser) and Zunguka – and challenged Kenyans to be ready to develop application and systems to take advantage of the expected submarine cable (TEAMS) once it lands.

Other platforms/applications I learnt about include Helule, Peupe (from multiplechoices), Campus Vybe, Stockskenya, and Haiya

- Hash gave a session on blogger tips that was very engaging

- Interesting talks were given on the Kenya Internet Exchange Point which exchanges net traffic between local ISP’s (and which can be up to 90% or 50 MEGS? in peak time), the Kipsigis Heritage Foundation, Computers for Schools Kenya and Kenyan Poet talked about a local book sale company that accepted M-Pesa payments and had free delivery of books in Nairobi

- Paul Kukubo of the Kenya ICT Board talked about the Kenya Transparency Communication Infrastructure Project (KTCIP?), a partnership with the World Bank that had a grant of $1.5 million to go toward creators of local portals, content and applications (such as commodity exchanges for agriculture). Awards will be in the range of $10,000 to $20,000 each and a formal announcement wile be made later

Safariom day 12
Deals 5,091 Turnover 438,560,608 ($6.85 million) Closing 7.70 High 7.80 Low 7.55 Last 7.70 Volume 56.9 million shares. Weaker tone. Buyers pulled back and Sellers chased down. 7.35/7.50 is support. We came down on much lower volume. Data and commentary from Rich.co.ke [Free real time prices] - authorized NSE data vendor.

Housekeeping


This is post number one thousand! Like Romario’s goals, some have been dubious, or forgotten, but many well received. It’s been a great 3 ½ year journey and thanks to all the people I have met, tips sent in, questions asked, frequent commenters et. al

Thank you to my sponsors - Mamamikes and Hisanet - whose support has been a helpful reward for the time put into this medium.

Great people I met this week through KBW, Skunkworks, Makutano, and thank for their time and chats (in no particular order) to AKS (of Rich.co.ke), Coldtusker, EGM, Hash, Intelligensia, Kenyan Pundit, Kirima, Mental, Nakeel, Riyaz, Shiroh Kenyan Poet, Sports Kenya, Alpha Quadrant, and all others from Barcamp, Safari Sevens, and other events this week. I'll start twittering for Afromusing next.

Safaricom Day 11
Week three kicks off with the company still accounting for over 92% of the shares volume and 75% of the cash at the NSE: Deals 6,151, Turnover Kshs. 785.2 million ($12.27 million), Average 7.82, Closing price unchanged, High 7.90, Low 7.75, Last 7.85, Volume 100.4 million shares.
Rich.co.ke commentary: Market is in equilibrium for now. Short term Investors are still supplying the market just below 8. Very well supported here. I expect a break higher, once the market absorbs the balance. I cannot believe it will be very long because of the activity we have already witnessed.

What’s next
Up next after Safaricom is the KCB rights issue whose options began trading today and whose ‘prospectus is now (PDF)

Deals 5,216
Turnover 480.5 million shillings [$7.62 million],
Average 7.84, Closing 7.80, High 7.90, Low 7.70, Last 7.85
Shares volume 61.2 million shares

Commentary: Still beneath 8.00, the key pivot. On classic chart theory, the recent price is creating a triangle pattern, which normally indicates an upcoming break [either side actually]. It’s well supported at 7.80; volumes are slowing so I expect a break to the upside. [Data courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke - NSE data vendor]

That’s the final piece from Rich.Co.Ke, after a great two weeks of the new share on the Nairobi Stock Exchange, on to other things from next week. How have NSE shares fared since Safaricom was listed?

Price change since June 9

56% Safaricom
6% Athi Rive Mining
2% NMG, Access Kenya
1% Housing Finance, Equity, D-Trust, BAT, Kenol, Olympia
= Kenya Airways, Jubilee, City Trust
-1% Barclays, Kakuzi, CFC, Standard Chartered, Express
-2% KCB
- 3% CMC
-4% NIC, Kenya Re, Standard, TPSEA, Sasini
-5% Unga, NBK
-6% EA Cables, Total, Mumias, ICDCI, Scangroup, Rea Vipingo
- 7% KPLC, Crown
- 8% EABL
-9 % Kengen
-14% Sameer
- 16% Eveready

Safaricom @ NSE Day 9

Kutwa Tuesday - June 18

Safaricom @ NSE Day 8

Safaricom @ NSE Day 7

Safaricom @ NSE Day 6

Safaricom @ NSE Day 4

Safaricom @ NSE Day 3

Safricom @ NSE: Day 1

What to do with refund cheque?

Safaricom IPO allocation

IPO daylight

Economic Stimulus Friday

Regional banks and dueling websites

IPO Guilt Part II: Rule of queues

Regional IPO Tales

IPO Tales: 13 days to go

One week gone

Safaricom IPO starts

Safaricom IPO: Prospectus Peek

Prospectus is out

but before that
- The Kenya Capital Investment Group has a nice post to guide Diaspora investors considering the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) for the first time
- Which broker to use for Safaricom? Check out the Business daily on Friday March 28 for a guide to stockbrokers – the good, the bad, and the rogue. Afrika investment bank is the newest (previously was Ashbhu Securities) I-bank now.
– beyond Safaricom I Co-op bank announces plans to list, which is a great overdue addition to the NSE
– beyond Safaricom II and if the Finance Minister is by chance short in his bid to raise money from the privatization process, I’ve always maintained that he should go after another prime company; Kenya Pipeline - with pre-tax profits of Kshs. 4 billion (and EPS of 163), ripe for a split and a listing
– loans for shares: Joining equity bank in offering 100% financing is family bank, oriental and national bank so far. I may change my stance on loans for shares if I see a bank with a clear policy of loan prepayment, in case say 80% of the cash is not utilized – so an investor is not left with a loan to squander, instead of shares to sell
- Investors will be able to use pesa point ATM’s to pay for IPO shares
- Housing finance signing with Safaricom’s M-Pesa for money transfer last week shows how traditional companies like Western Union have been overtaken by changes in the banking industry.
– Writing in the Financial Standard (Tuesday) Jonathan Somen, CEO of Access Kenya (the last ICT company to be listed) calls Safaricom a good short term buy as they have performed prior to the arrival of France’s Orange (formerly Telkom Kenya) and India’s Essar (through Econet)
– Africa Alliance has opened an IPO center in Nairobi - open from 7am to 7 pm
– DYK: You have to apply to use the Kenya flag on any product? Safaricom have received permission to use it on scratch cards, the Tea Board of Kenya to display it on tea packets, and Nike International (through their lawyers) to sell it on hooded jackets!
- Pay for mail; CDS will for the first time require IPO applicants to pay Kshs. 30 for mailing each confirmed allocation.

- What do you know? The IPO's official site is inactive/inaccessible a day after going live.
- For anyone new to Safaricom here’s how they became so successful

News Bits

- Safaricom has introduced an airtime voucher worth just 20 shillings (~$0.30): what does that smaller sale unit say about the economy?
- Bargains: Safaricom has halved the price of blackberry and is also selling Samba Modems for just Kshs. 3,000 ($42)
- Air-wars: Good for Kenya Airways (KQ); Delta Airlines (US) has delayed their new service from New York to Nairobi (scheduled for June 08) to start in December owing to current market conditions. Bad for KQ; Emirates will start passenger services to the Guangzhou (China) in July 2008 four times weekly and convert to daily flights from December.
- Why would Coca Cola introduce a Fanta Lite and sell it in the same bottle & packaging at 50/= instead of 40/=

Jobs: Available at Safaricom and Google, while regulator, the Capital Markets Authority is still searching for a chief executive amidst the region’s largest ever IPO.

Apply online: For Safaricom shares, check out the Official IPO site from Citi

Bears bleed
- NSE Bears: For the second day of the Safaricom IPO era, only 3 NSE shares rise, same as on Friday, while the rest drop or are flat.
- Farewell: To Bear Stearns sold for $2 a share, down from $170 a year ago and 7% of what it was worth on Friday.

Vultures circle:
Beware of loans for shares
- Equity Bank offering up to 80% finance for the Safaricom IPO
- Fanikisha account from Transnational Bank offering 70% finance towards the IPO

edit - We've been Punk'd!
Corporate blog: A big salute to Equity for breaking another milestone - presenting the first official bank blog - here's the Equity Bank Blog. a WIP, but keep it up, stay strong, relevant, and up-to-date
Thanks JP for looking out

The financial part of the day is over with no announcement on the start of the Safaricom IPO; when it comes, should still not matter as chasing an IPO is a futile matter for a savvy retail investor. This is how it works - buy the shares after they list, not by queuing for hours around the block only to get 50 shares and 90% refund cheques.

All Kenyan IPO’s priced at less than 10 shillings have been greatly over-subscribed and this one which falls in that range could be the biggest.

So wait for the shares to list, and then buy. They may be floated at 10 shillings, and open at 25 - but have you lost anything? Not if you and 300,000 other shareholders all start off with 50 – 100 shares each. In fact you have a head start as you will have your money ready while the others wait for their refund cheques to be processed

What else to do;
- Buy through an investment club or a company if those groups get preferential allocations
- Buy other shares that may drop in price
- Marry a Safaricom employee, or better yet - get a job there and apply through the employee pool
- Use a reputable stockbroker stockbroker or bank

What not to do;
- Don’t take a loan to buy IPO shares.
- Don’t buy through multiple names/relatives/companies – you’ll have to chase a refund for each and consolidate after.
- Don't wait for the Econet option - I've being writing about their launch/imminent rollout in Kenya for as long as this blog has existed

That's what I'm doing: any other suggestions for maximum returns?


FAUX PAX
Ooops, spoke too soon - sorry Mr. Minister

Kenya sets Safaricom IPO share price at 5 shillings
NAIROBI, March 14 (Reuters) - Kenya is to offer a 25 percent stake to the public in leading mobile phone operator Safaricom at 5 shillings per share, Finance Minister Amos Kimunya said on Friday. Kimunya said the offer would open to the public on March 28 and close April 26. There will be 10 billion shares for sale. The proposed Safaricom sale may prove a key test of domestic and foreign investor confidence in east Africa's largest economy after negative effects of the post-election political crisis. (Reporting by George Obulutsa)

Still the math does not change. Assume a realistic 3 million shareholders, they can each get 3,333 shares each at a cost of 17,000 each - still means over-subscription, and that does not factor in any preferential allocations for corporates and employees, reducing the pool

All Safaricom: :
Good: An IPO from Safaricom could be the tonic that will restore investor confidence in Kenya that has been damaged the political events over the last month.
Good: Safarciom has partnered with Google to offer free email (6GB worth) to all their customers.
-but not good Have Safaricom raise their data costs? Internet browsing by phone seems to chew up airtime a lot faster these days

Air wars:
- Fly cheaper: Kenya Airways flights to Mombasa are now 3,000 shillings ($45) one way and 5,000 for roundtrips (plus tax) – about ½ of what they were a month ago
- There's a new airline on the Kisumu route, as another airline, Fly 540 has also acquired new aircraft to embark on flights to other regional African countries.

Mitigating political risks:
- There was notice in the paper by the Association of Kenya Insurers (AKI) confirming that political risks/riots are not covered in their policies. However ye members will discuss loss compensation on a case by case basis.
- But there’s a green light for some; Today’s Daily Nation has a (offline) story about the Africa Trade Insurance Agency - a World Bank subsidiary that covers political risks that has been largely dormant in Kenya until this month when corporates like Kenya Airways, Telkom and Nakumatt have been flocking to enquire about political risk cover. The story has an ominous warning that election violence could be an event that recurs every five years in Kenya in future.

Phantom exchange: Owing to a system hitch, there was no trading at the Nairobi Stock Exchange on Monday – though someone at the Standard says there were some trades. The exchange appears slightly inflated with all that’s going on around in the country.

Boycott averted: I was in the second week of my personal boycott of national broadcaster Kenya Broadcast Corporation (KBC) for shoddy programming and outright disservice to Kenyans in the post-election period. But they have won me back temporarily with their belated offer to broadcast soccer matches from the Africa Cup of Nations in Ghana. Having a variety of channels to watch is however a luxury that million in rural Kenya do not have as they only have the national broadcaster to tune to for news and entertainment.

Opportunities
Consult with Pricewaterhousecoopers: Kenya jobs include Transfer Pricing Manager, Consultant (Internal Audit) Senior Consultant (Internal Audit Services) Specialist (s) (Public Sector) , Manager (Financial & Operational Effectiveness), Consultant (s) (Financial & Operational Effectiveness), Manager (Assurance-Audit), Consultant (IT Effectiveness), Consultant (CCH TeamMate), Associate Director (Mergers and Acquisition), Analyst (M&A), Manager (M&A). Also other positions available in Uganda and Tanzania – D/L for all is 31/1.

three weeks after the ill-fated elections and three days of mass protests

The Disruptions in the work flow have been a nuisance to the country, while the violence is threatening to cut off Central Africa. But how long before President Yoweri Museveni decides to drive eastwards for another road trip eastwards to check out the situation for himself?

If ODM’s goal is to grind the country to a halt, it may take a while. With tax collections significantly down, the pending Safaricom IPO which I thought will be an election winner could turn out to be a (one time) budget lifesaver – expected to yield over 30 billion shillings in Q2 of 2008.

ODM is now specifically targeting companies linked to key government personalities like Citi Hoppa, Brookside and Equity Bank. This sounds far-fetched and could lead to retaliatory attacks (ODM personalities are also business people); it's also an extension of silent boycotts that people have undertaken on their own. E.g. people who only selling petrol to their kinsmen, while others boycott pubs or have stopped reading the Nation or Standard/KTN because of their perceived political leanings.

While George bush is trying to revive the US economy through bipartisan tax breaks, but here we have two sides who won’t even sit down with each other. If they don’t, the crisis may soon spin out of control as the race for the presidency assumes historical dimensions

cut & paste: The Central Bank has introduced business continuity guidelines for all banks. However, it seems to be an update of an IT disaster preparedness document that's a few years old, and does not mention any of the words - crowd, riot, security, cash, ATM – and only one mention of ‘police’. In short, it does not address many of the challenges banks have faced.

Insurers with hearts: Some insurance companies like pan Africa and Heritage (CFC) making exception on a case by case basis to assist business people victimized in the riots. As a rule, insurance companies have no responsibility to cover such acts

Such as Business coping: Ukwala supermarket, which was destroyed in Kisumu, lost all their financial records. They are asking suppliers & partners to provide them with statements, delivery reports, and invoices as at December 31 and not to bank any of their cheques.

But can’t please everyone: like thieves who take advantage of busy police battling rioters, some unscrupulous borrowers are also using the economic shutdown to plead with banks for delayed repayment and favorable revision of loan terms when the haven’t really been affected.

Signal of confidence: On Wednesday, Imara Holdings introduced a new fund targeting the Diaspora willing to invest in east Africa. It’s an open fund with minimum investment of 6.5 million shillings (~$100,000) and will be sold through Kenya’s ICEA

- Recognize us: Barclays have eaten humble pie for two years, but who would have through that high-street Standard Chartered would open a branch in Eastleigh?

Local Icarus: what happens when you fly too close to the sun

opportunities
- From PSD Blog; nominate a women entrepreneur to the doing business group of the World Bank.

Current open jobs
from the papers this week
- APA Insurance: unit managers, account managers. Apply to recruitement@apainsurance.com
- Safaricom: VAS Propositions Manager, Channel Development Manager, Key Accounts Executive – apply online. But for the position of chief information officer - but apply though pricewaterhousecoopers executive selection division (ESD).

It's been a very tiring day, after spending seven hours waiting to vote. Still, if I'm willing to buy shares in a crummy IPO, I should be equally tolerant of a election day that occurs every five years.

The week also included Christmas shopping and could also have included the Safaricom IPO before it was wisely put aside till mid 2008.

mini comparison

personal touch: While IPO's have arrangements for high-net worth and corporate investor that shield them from the crowds (place orders over the phone, and wire money after the IPO), Christmas shopping and elections are a duty that most people have to perform in person.

For elections, you must present your identification documents in person, and for Christmas shopping, a gift is as unique as the buyer perceives the recipient will appreciate what they have chosen. So in the voting queue or at Nakumatt on the 24th or 25th on December you're likely to meet many freinds & colleagues, or interact with a well known personality or two such as the head of the Nairobi stock exchange and a presidential candidate. It was also very touching to encounter the president daughter shopping in Nakumatt - picking out gifts, pushing a basket and queuing alone, so different from the high security entourages and preferential treatment that surrounds her folks.

Logistics: Shopping wins, IPO's second, while voting is a distant third. The electoral commission reliance on manual registers to search for voters was time consuming (see my 7 hours). This was after as a previous voter, who had verified using their online system, should have been straight forward. There was a lot more confusion with the electoral commission of Kenya station than the last time round - and even worse in parts of Langata where a leading presidential candidates name was missing from the register (others will see it as sabotage).

Early bird: It's good to be early with Christmas shopping as you can make careful decisions, shop for bargains, and a have a variety of goods to choose from that are often sold out by the time us late shoppers arrive. But with IPO's and elections, often the right decision is to wait until the middle (end of first week for IPO, or noon of election day) after the anxious early-bird crowds have been sevred and disappeared. E.g. While i spent 7 hours voting, some people queued for 20 min tops in the afternoon

Some other elections observations:
- Party observers, who were only keen to help their party members. They increased the workload of ECK official who should instead be tending to voter individual queries and problems
- ECK officials arguing in public with each other. It's understandable given the stress they are under to cope today, but bad for the image.
- The Langata snafu
- Self policing in the lines, in t