(I am gathering details...)
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Rants, Raves & Reviews
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The next Triton... is....
» Rants, Raves & Reviews The next Triton-like scam will involve a politically connected firm known as "Gulf Energy"... you read it here first...
(I am gathering details...) -
KQ cannot trust corrupt KAA
» Rants, Raves & Reviews KQ used to face multiple complaints about lost/stolen luggage when it relied on KAA for safety of its passengers' cargo & luggage.
No more. KQ hires its own guards to man the holding area for cargo & luggage.
An added cost of doing business in Kenya. No wonder the cost of flights to/from Kenya are so high.
The Kenya Airports Authority (under the political appointee george 'banana' muhoho) needs to be privatised. It remains a bastion of corrupt deals.
In spite of all the problems in the 'West' & all the 'potential' in Africa, I wonder if it makes more sense to invest in Asia, Europe & America rather than Africa... -
Why doing business in Kenya cost more
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Many un-informed journalists, citizens, politicians & idiots complain about the 'margins' or 'spreads' charged on goods & services. On the surface that is true. Kenyan businesses tend to have wider spreads than what is common in the Western world.
(Let's be clear... I am NOT condoning any sort of scam or counterfeiting or shortchanging or cheating... I am talking of WYSIWYG)
I will try to provide specifics instead of 'general comments' favored by the group/s above.
Let's look a little deeper:- Inefficiencies - Many firms e.g. Kenol-Kobil have to deal with an inefficient oil importation regime. They are forced to process 50% (by law 70%) of their requirements through Kenya Petroleum Refineries Ltd (KPRL) which uses much older technology (hydro-skimming) as well as being sub-optimal in size. This leads to lower high-value (white fuels) derivatives. Cost to Kenyans an additional 3/- per litre.
- Corruption - Many firms e.g. Kenol-Kobil are forced to pass on additional 'charges' to consumers since the management of Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) has a history of being involved in corrupt deals (including tenders to extend the pipeline). The latest scandal was Triton-KPC. Cost to Kenyans is hard to determine but definitely high.
- Legal system breakdown - HFCK will take defaulters to court but the case could take 5 years even if HFCK has all the cards. Why? An over-burdened court system which does not have a dedicated 'business' court. Deferrals are common as lawyers postpone, postpone & postpone hearings. And when they do show up, the judge/magistrate does not.
- KRA (non)refunds - KRA collects VAT, duties, taxes, etc. Penalties abound if a business is late in remitting the payments. In the event of a refund... get in line. We are not talking of disputed refunds. Even simple refunds are not paid to the businesses in a timely manner. KRA claims they are given KShs 1.04 billion per quarter for refunds REGARDLESS of what they collect. Kenol-Kobil & Total could have KShs 1,000,000,000 outstanding to each of them at any one time. So they borrow from the market. And add financing costs to our petrol price.
- Taxes ad infinitum - The government imposes horrendous amount of taxes in the form of levies, duties, VAT, income tax, etc. Then there are property taxes, license fees, payroll taxes, etc. A retail outlet in the CBD with a 10% margin can't even break-even. And this is before rent is due!
- Insecurity/theft - Theft by employees is pretty common in Kenya. And I do not mean office supplies. I have so many personal examples. My Dad (an engineer/entrepreneur) used to scour Industrial Area factories for jobs - rewind/resuscitate old (burnt) motors. Reduced imports. Saved Kenya forex. Helped the environment. Provided Kenyans jobs. While he was juggling sales, accounting, etc... the employees were busy stealing & selling NEW copper wire (used to rewind motors) as scrap metal. He soon found out about the theft since income didn't match expenses. The copper wire was bought on credit. He paid the suppliers out of his pocket. Heart-broken. Fired ALL the employees. Shut the business down.
- Uncertainty - Uncertainty is very costly. The KShs careens all over the place because of Kenya's fragility. These ups & downs creates problems. Look at the volatility of the Kenya Shilling. Or how volatile oil prices caused KQ's KShs 7.5 billion loss on hedges. Or the 'fear' of violence in almost every election. Fear had gripped the country in 2002. and when Kenyans relaxed in 2007, it blew up in their faces.
- The 'politically-connected businessmen' - How does a legit business compete against these tax evaders who the KRA never touches? Goods come in from Somalia untaxed but nary a raid on Eastleigh or Mandera?
Therefore, even if I feel I am being over-charges vis-a-vis Amazon's prices... my hats off to the businesspeople/entrepreneurs in Kenya! -
Idiocy is the new fashion in Kenya
» Rants, Raves & Reviews The National Environmental Management Agency in Kenya is supposed to safeguard Kenya's environment.
Yet, the agency plans to build their HQ on land in the Karura Forest - a fast disappearing forest within the greater Nairobi area. -
Blogging vs Tweeting
» Rants, Raves & Reviews -
Kenya - is there any good news?
» Rants, Raves & Reviews KenGen & KPLC - They are raising their rates since Kenya has a shortfall of Hydropower. And the politicians bicker & dither over the water catchment areas. Even worse? We are setting ourselves up for a massive famine.
Nairobi City Council - Stupid by-laws.Welfare Programs (Cash handouts) - Does anyone beside me see the potential for abuse? And where is the GoK going to get funds for this?
Subsidies - Overall, these drain the coffers while imposing a burden on the greater society. Fertilizer subsidies matter little if there is NO water.
Water Shortages - No action on water catchment areas. Forest being decimated. And prime forest land continues being 'allocated' to & by politicians.
Crime - Nairobbery deserves its name. No more "Green City in the Sun". Even the Prime Minister's office was broken into. So much for security! This article is a must read. Even Mombasa is being hit by the crime wave. I used to walk around Old Town at 1am... no fear... not the same anymore...
Guns & murders are commonplace...
Untreated sewage dumped into the ocean - Yuck and double yuck. Kenya's 'favorite' ocean town discharges all its RAW sewage into the sea. I am sure this will do wonders for tourism.
Post-election Murderers running free - Yep, running all over. Free as birds. And stealing whatever they can lay their hands on.
No wonder Prez Obama stayed away from Kenya...
Is there anything to redeem Kenya? -
Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd - Cautionary Statement
» Rants, Raves & Reviews OLYMPIA CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
Olympia Capital Holdings Limited (OCHL) owns 51% of Olympia Capital Corporation Limited (OCC), a company listed on the Botswana Stock Exchange. In December 2006, OCC purchased 74% of Plush Products (pty) Limited (Plush).
For the fnancial periods ended December 2006, February 2008 and February 2009, Plush did not contributed positively to the bottom line of the group. From September 2008, following the slipping of the South African economy into a recession, we saw a signifcant drop in our sales that made the company go into a loss making situation.
We believe in the products and the market, but not the model to market that we have used to date. A decision has been made to close the company, sell the assets to meet our obligations and consider re-entering the market with a leaner model.
The closure of Plush will not have any negative effect on the operational group proftability, however we will only tell with time the effect that the loss of the actual investment will have on our group balance sheet.
Michael Matu
Chief Executive
23rd June 2009
Many folks have been asking about Olympia Capital Holdings (Kenya). The shares' trading was suspended on Monday at 11am but resumed trading on Tuesday after the statement was released. We will have to wait for the FY 2008-9 results expected by 30 June 2009.
The conventional wisdom in financial markets is that the longer the delay in announcing results, the worse they are.
[KQ released their 2008-9 results 1 week later than usual. Well, there was a Kes 7.5bn charge to profits relating to hedging.]
It is highly likely that OCHL will have to write off the ENTIRE equity injection into Plush-Yokota. And there is a chance that the profitable units might suffer as well from the cash drain or 'connection'. Nevertheless, OCHL's acquisition of Plush has set Olympia back many years.
That said, Plush has NEVER contributed to the bottomline for OCC (Botswana). So this action will stop the cash outflows for now.
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Corruption at KPC continues!
» Rants, Raves & Reviews KPC's scams continue... The idiots (or thieves or both) at the Ministry of Energy wanted to blame spiraling fuel prices on everyone else BUT the crooks at KPC.
Kenyans pay (IMHO) at least an extra 8/- per litre of fuel thanks to corruption & inefficiencies in the government, Ministry of Energy, Kenya Pipeline Company, Kenya Refineries, Kenya Ports Authority... -
Likoni ferries stall - DANGEROUS but Deja Vu
» Rants, Raves & Reviews This is an earlier post on the danger of not using the old ferries.
And in a repeat of what happened earlier... two ferries stalled at the Likoni channel... Again and again and again... -
Aga Khan Firms - Invest for the future
» Rants, Raves & Reviews I am a huge fan of all the listed Aga Khan firms (run/controlled by AKFED). They are a great investment at current 'depressed' prices.
Diamond Trust Bank - Among Kenya's best mid-tier banks. Regional growth is boosting its profile.
Jubilee Insurance - Among the largest of East Africa's insurance firms. It also owns a part of Africa Re.
Nation Media Group - The largest media group in East Africa. Future growth prospects in other parts of Africa.
TPSEA (Serena) - As the other AKFED's African hotel subsidiaries/associates merge into TPSEA, it will become one of Africa's premier hotel groups. -
Kenya's winners after the tough times
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Just a quick overview
Equity Bank - Acquisitions + Organic growth will propel it to the #2 Kenyan bank by 2012. Plenty of cash for NBK and/or HFCK acquisitions.
KCB Bank - Organic regional growth but need to raise cash in 2010. Huge bet on housing in E. Africa will propel lending.
EABL - The classic tortoise expansion strategy into regional markets. Dominates Kenya but strong challenger (SABMiller) elsewhere but Tanzania is no-go for EABL. Ethiopia is the Holy Grail for EABL. Cash is a-plenty plus Diageo is always there if needed.
KQ - Huge hedging 'paper' loss in 2008-9 which will translate 'cash' loss of cash by Dec 2010 but KQ generates plenty cash from operations. Cash-flow + cash hoard ($100 million)allows for route & fleet expansion. Dominates many African markets but Ethiopian Airlines is tough African rival. Other competitors expanding but Africa is littered with dead airlines.
KenolKobil - Expansion is afoot & the cash is available. Borrowings mostly short-term to finance inventory. Kenya is the largest & toughest market but KK hints acquisitions in Central & Southern Africa. Smart, lean, responsive & voracious management.
AccessKenya - Huge capex in laying cable in Nairobi. Other metros will follow. Push for SoHo customers. Remains a juicy acquisition target. I expect Access to enter Tanzania & Uganda after SEACOM goes live in 4Q 2009. -
Fertiliser Scams - Follow the blogger
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Well... it turns out that weeks after my warning... The Standard has finally figured out that scams are a-happening...
[www.eastandard.net]
And that too in the editorial... -
Subsidised Fertiliser Scams - I told you
» Rants, Raves & Reviews As predicted by yours truly...
Fertiliser Scams Coming Soon
Subsidies do NOT work in Kenya... they are just a way for the politically-connected to scam taxpayers....
[www.eastandard.net]
[www.eastandard.net]
And this is the tip of the iceberg... -
Anglo-Leasing & amos wako
» Rants, Raves & Reviews I believe that many of the senior politicians in the kibaki & moi governments benefitted from anglo-fleecing contracts.
Let us start with amos wako who approved these contracts. And now refuses to follow up on the cases filed against the anglo-fleecing folks. Why? Coz (IMHO) he is a beneficiary.
Then kibz... who refused to stop the scam... kibz refusal to halt anglo-fleecing scam in its tracks is the primary cause of his unpopularity today.
Had kibz (did he benefit from anglo-fleecing?) kept his deal about zero tolerance to corruption, he would have beaten raila fair & square during the 2007 polls... -
Somali pirates killed - Good riddance!
» Rants, Raves & Reviews As I thought... the Americans would launch a Special Ops to rescue the American captain captured by the somali pirates...
Well... the GOOD NEWS... the SOFs (Special Ops Forces) killed 3 somali pirates & captured 1 (why not kill him as well?) AND rescued Captain Richard Phillips.
Good riddance! -
Kill the Somali Pirates
» Rants, Raves & Reviews The French mounted a rescue attempt on the "The Tanit" but lost a French hostage. The French in good form killed two pirates. The Indian Navy also destroyed a somali pirate boat killing a few somali pirates.
The rest of the world needs to get in line. The Germans capture pirates. What a waste of time. The USA has not mounted any attacks on the somalis. The Germans are constrained by some silly notion of not being the aggressor. The USA is haunted by the "Blackhawk Down" incident as well as Obama's obsession/need to improve relations with the muslim world. Obama was filmed bowing down to the saudi king!
My opinion?
Well, Kenya is affected in many ways by somali piracy. We lose tourists (cruise ships), higher import costs for oil, etc. These pirates also provide bases for al-qaeda as well as drug smuggling into Kenya.
I think the Amercians, Brits, Indians, Chinese, etc should BOMB the somalis back to the ice age. A co-ordinated attack on all major ports/bases should cripple the somali pirates. A second attack should be on any somali boat or mothership.
Yes, yes, yes... some civilians will be hurt but let's face it... these civilians are the support staff for the pirates. I would rather have a safer Kenya then worry about some dead somalis. -
Obama bows before king
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Obama bows down before king abdullah of saudi arabia...
Ouch! This is going to hurt Obama's reputation as the leader of the free world when you consider that saudi arabians are well not 'free'.
So what do you think?
[www.americanthinker.com]
[www.jihadwatch.org]
[www.suntimes.com]
[www.suntimes.com]
Possible Explanations:- “I wasn’t bowing . . . I was ducking in case someone threw a shoe.”
- "Oops, I dropped my contact lens."
- "Keep buying our T-Bills or my goose is cooked!"
- “I wasn’t bowing . . . I was ducking in case someone threw a shoe.”
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Safaricom enters the Gambling business
» Rants, Raves & Reviews SafCon in its own sneaky fashion introduced the "Lipua Mamilioni" compaign which claims you can win Kes 1 million a day.
In very small print... to enter... you send an sms that costs 3.50 to SafCon. 1 sms per entry.
So shouldn't this 'promotion' be labelled as gambling?Where is the CCK?Where is the Betting & Gambling Licensing Board? -
Kenol Share Price Shenanigans
» Rants, Raves & Reviews ****
On 6 April 2009, there was a block trade of 1.4 million Kenol shares done 'across the books' by Dyer & Blair at 30/- on the prompt board. I believe the seller got a raw deal. This was an outlier trade yet it was used to calculate the Volume Weighted Average Price which was 30/- at the end of trading.
The prior closing price was 45/-. And the results for the year ended 31 Dec 2008 were decent (EPS of 6.66) & included a dividend of Kes 3.50. On the normal board there were bids at 49/- with few sellers.
On 7 April 2009, there is demand for 392,000 shares at 33/- (10% above the VWAP of 6 April 2009) but no sellers.
The problem is that liquidity in this counter has been 'killed'. Sellers (unless desperate) will not sell at prices below 45 (IMHO). The rules on the NSE only allow for a price increase if there is a trade. So until someone sells shares at the lower price thus short-changing themselves... the price will remain at below the market-price until the shares go ex-dividend.
Solution:
- NSE needs to exclude 'outlier' trades when calculating VWAP. Or at least the opening trading prices.
- In the event of slow/dead trading due to bid/offer mis-matches, allow for an auction that brings the price to a level that allows for normal trading.
In Kenol's case, I am sure there are buyers willing to pay higher prices (than the bid of 33/- allowed) but they are stuck at 33/-. There were buyers willing to pay 49.25 on Monday (6 Apr 2009) after the results were disseminated.
My Opinion - I may be wrong: I think the buyer may have been D&B or an affiliate. The CDSC takes 2 days or so to credit the account of the Buyer. The Buyer will then push up the price to the 'realistic' level & then start selling the shares... Sigh... to be a broker in the know... -
Price-fixing & manipulation at the NSE - Idiots
» Rants, Raves & Reviews ***
What idiocy by the NSE.
The NSE wants the stockbroker licenses valued at a minimum of Kes 251mn. This is silly at best & perhaps criminal.
The NSE (or any stock exchange) is founded on the basis of PRICE DISCOVERY. Willing buyer, willing seller. So doesn't this go against their own credo... So why not just 'fix' prices on the stock exchange as well? After all... who cares about the 'willing buyer, willing seller' concept?
The Kes 251mn is based on what Renaissance paid for the 'clean' thuo license. Well... this was in 2007, when NSE was booming. Not in 2009 when brokers are collapsing. Nyaga & Discount collapsed in 2008 & 2009. Bob Mathews survived coz of Co-op Bank.
(If I had Kes 251mn, I would rather put it in the Infrastructure Bond at 13.5% Nett (Kes 30mn or so). No management hassles, no fraud, no employees, no need for capex, no working capital. -
JKIA reminds you of?
» Rants, Raves & Reviews ****
BusinessWeek has an interesting article how (major) airports reflect the country at large.
So what does JKIA remind you of?
I think JKIA is a little like River Road... bustling but seedy. Folks sleeping on the sidewalks. Dirty. Multiple dukas on either side of the 'walkway/road'. Il-mannered staff. Unattended desks. Matatu stand. -
muhoho-ho-ho (corrupt? inept? Or both?)back at KAA
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Well, I guess it helps to be uhuru kenyatta's (Finance Minister & Deputy PM) uncle as well as a buddy who speaks the same language as kibz (Kenya's prez).
Yes, the reviled, corrupt & inept george muhoho is back at KAA in spite of all the accusations of incompetence. It seems he might have firm instructions to wrap up - and collect the cash on - all the funny deals within the next 12 months. Before others get wise to the 'deals' especially the long-dated land leases. Yep, sell out Kenya. Quicker the better. After all 2012 is not that far away!!!
muhoho & friends forget - or do not care - that JKIA could be the real hub of Africa. That Nairobi could be a thriving 'shopping' destination for transit passengers. That this can create thousands of well-paying jobs for Kenyans. Diversify our economy. Enrich all Kenyans.
No... All that is NOT relevant because quick cash for 'personal' use can be made by entering into opaque deals with 'unknown' or connected firms. Allocate land to unknown foreign airlines (OneJetOne) & developers (the so-called Qatari based Afro-Asian Investment Company) while starving locally-grown Kenyan airlines of growth opportunities.
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/556420/-/u3r8h1/-/index.html
Anyone out there who thinks all is above board here? -
I&M Bank has a very profitable 2008 - but 2009?
» Rants, Raves & Reviews This is for MainaT [mjengakenya.blogspot.com)]
For those who wonder about I&M Bank & the NSE... well, it turns out that City Trust Ltd (AIMS on the NSE) owns 8.93% of I&M Bank. Talk of a diamond in the rough.
Anyway, a lot of this has been filched (erm, borrowed) from the I&M Bank Press Release on 31st March 2009.
On a personal note... I think the bank is a great bank for those who want real customer service. Not the cheapest (but reasonable vis-a-vis other Kenyan banks) bank but great staff who work with their customers. I doubt they will grow to be a 'big bank' but that does not seem to be their aim. Niche banking.
"Following the acquisition of 50% of Bank One Ltd., Mauritius, I&M Bank Consolidated Group Accounts have been published for the first time, reflecting group asset size of Kshs 42.8 billion which depicts a 46% increase in the Group’s assets.
The Bank has increased its customer advances portfolio by Kshs 6.67 billion reflecting a growth of 35% over the year. On customer deposits, the Bank’s portfolio has grown by Kshs 4.73 billion (20% growth).
Profit Before Taxes are at Kshs 1.62 billion, which surpasses its 2007 bottom-line performance by 25%.
Significantly contributing to this profitability is the efficiency ratio (operating expenses /total income) of the Bank which, at 44.4%, is impressive by international standards. The Bank won the ‘Most Efficient Bank’ award in the Banking Survey Awards 2008 for the second year running.
During the year 2008, I&M Bank successfully issued Kshs 600 million floating rate notes, thus bolstering the Tier II capital of the Bank. The Bank also received a Kshs 537 million long term foreign currency line of credit from PROPARCO, the French Development Financial Institution. PROPARCO is a shareholder of the Bank.
I&M Bank continued its strategy of technology driven product innovation with the introduction of two new Visa pre-paid card products and expansion of its ATM network. It increased its footprint in Kenya by opening two new branches in Nairobi’s Wilson Airport and Ongata Rongai. During the year, the Bank also upgraded its core banking software to the state-of-art Finacle system.
I&M Bank has also recently expanded its Board of Directors with the induction of three new eminent independent directors, Mr Evans Kidero, Mr. Mugo Kibati and Mr. M. Soundrarajan."
Comments/Opinions
1) All 3 new directors are/were MDs/CEOs of publicly listed firms. Kidero - current MD of Mumias Sugar. Kibati - former CEO of EA Cables. Soundarajan - former MD of CFC Bank
2) So is I&M Bank thinking of a listing?
3) PROPARCO has given a huge loan to Mumias for the co-generation plant. Could Kidero be a representative of PROPARCO?
4) They took a huge NPL charge in 4Q 2008 (vs 3Q 2008 or 4Q 2007). Conservative or a ticking bomb?
(My understanding of NPLs is that the loans are downgraded i.e. not 'bad loans' but potentially bad. With time the loans can be restructured or recovered through sales of assets/collateral).
5) Dividend payout of 398mn (36% - payout ratio). Wow, quite an increase on FY 2007's dividend but doesn't make sense coz they raised Kes 600mn about 5 months ago in a Rights Issue. Why go through all the hassle of raising Kes 600mn then pay out 400mn a few months later? -
Headlines We Would Love To See - April Fool's Day
» Rants, Raves & Reviews ***I am cleaning up the post but enjoy... .
kibaki shows leadership mettle
. Capital Markets Authority to put in effective measures to combat fraud on the NSE
Artur Brothers Consulting appointed to train JKIA's security personnel. (jke is a mean, mean man)
. NSE Stockbrokers swear they will NEVER scam investors of their hard-earned money
. prof ndungu (CBK) claims Kenya's economy is solid as a rock - (Not) April Fool's Day coz he actually means it!
. bonny khalwale vows not to act for the cameras while in parliament
. ka-loser (kalonzo) admits he is not God's gift to Kenya
. kibaki fires corrupt & inept ministers
. mutua tells the truth
. Kenya Police Force Will PROTECT innocent people
. lucy accepts wambui as part of the family - (well... when Hell freezes over)
. Attorney General (wako) will prosecute a corruption case CONCLUSIVELY
. lucy accepts wambui as part of the family
. Kenya's parliament bans tribal/racial politics - April Fool's Day21 minutes ago from web
. Kenya to have zero deaths in the 2012 elections - April Fool's Day (yeah, I am a pessimist)
. Kenyatta University students take a vow they will NOT stone innocent motorists
. Kenyatta University students take a vow they will stone innocent motorists - (Not) April Fool's Day
. Conclusive Land Reform in place in Kenya
. kenyatta family to return land jomo 'inadvertently' stole
. MPs agree to take salary cut in sympathy with Kenyans' suffering
. george muhoho signs up as a kamikaze pilot
. moi admits his presidency was a failure
. Kenya Pipeline Company guarantees there will be no more fuel shortages
. Kenya's cabinet to commit hara-kiri (Oh, please say this is so... but April Fool's Day)
. lucy kibaki to take vow of silence
. kibaki shows leadership by paying taxes
. murungi to resign over oil scandal
Coldtusker to stop being a thorn in KAA's + KPC's + GoK's side (Well... Definitely an April Fool's Day joke) -
Raila - The New Government Spokesperson
» Rants, Raves & Reviews alfie 'goebbels' mutua used to be the purveyor of idiotic statements. Of course, his derision the then "mere junior senator from Illinois" aka Barack Obama... the now "President of the USA".
Anyway, raila has started defending every scam in town. Or so it seems. Why is he being the whipping boy?
KAA + OneJetOne + muhoho + Afro-Asian Investments (some fake Qatari firm): I have no faith in georgie muhoho whose only claim to fame is his familial connections with uhuru kenyatta. Of course, KQ is upset at the KAA giving away Embakasi airport while KQ has no space to park its planes!
KPC + Triton: I am not sure but a good source told me that raila implied that no money was lost to Triton. And there seems to be pressure on KCB to give KPC-Triton a pass... And then there is this article making the rounds.
Mau Forest: What happened? RAO has backed off calls for kicking the squatters out. Kenya needs to rain & water that the Mau complex provides.
"Lesser Corruption" defence: What is RAO smoking? Grand corruption is alive & kicking... and all he could say was that the current corruption is 'less' than prior years? Whereas I can forgive him for 'forgiving' small time corruption but NOT the mega-scams in the billions e.g. KPC-Triton...
alfie 'goebbels' mutua must be smirking at RAO's gaffes! -
Kenya's Public University Students - Idiots?
» Rants, Raves & Reviews I have never understood the need for violence & destruction. I never damaged university property (well... not knowingly) even when I felt the administration was wrong. And in dan 'illiterate' moi's heydays, the administration was often wrong...
How does burning university buildings - and looting computers - help the kenyatta (or any other) university students? They only hurt themselves & not the administration or lecturers...
When raila allowed University of Nairobi students to 'protest' in the streets... they messed up by destroying the goods & premises of various businesses...
And university 'graduates' wonder why many businessfolk refuse to hire the Univ grads... Coz the 'grads' are plain Idiots!
(I am all for PEACEFUL demonstrations or those that do not destroy what is 'mine') -
Kenyan Restaurants are (sometimes) their worst enemies
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Kenya is hurting. Kenyan consumers are hurting. Kenyan exporters are hurting. Kenyan businesses are hurting.
I do not understand Kenyan businesses... they refuse to cater to the consumer.
Whereas inflation (higher wages, higher fuel costs, higher taxes) is a problem for businesses, Kenyan consumers' discretionary spending power is down - substantially - but the businesses keep on raising prices... and that will continue reducing consumption OR drives consumers to substitutes.
I have been a regular at various mid-priced restaurants & food courts around Nairobi... and everything I usually order was up in price since late 2008.
Fresh Juices: From 120 to 150 (25%) - I substitute juices for sodas but...
Sugarcane Juice: 60 to 70 (17%)
Chips: 120 to 150 (25%) - since I am cutting down on greasy foods this doesn't hurt me much
Bhajias: 120 to 150 (25%) - since I am cutting down on greasy foods this doesn't hurt me much
Sodas: 40 to 50 (25%) - On the way out for me
Ice-cream: 90 to 110 (22%)
Beer: 100/120 to 120/150 (20-25%) - At this rate I will be a teetotaler
Smallish samosas: 6 for 100/- (a plate) to 3 for 100/- (50%)
Perhaps... it is time for Kenyans (Nairobians) to stop frequenting these restaurants!
I would rather meet up with friends at an outdoor spot OR at someone's house (with a nice garden), buy beer & sodas from Nakumatt (or have a keg delivered), cook/bbq at home!!! Buy juices in bulk or packs from a supermarket. Even hire a cook or self-cook and since cleaning up is a chore... so hire a maid/servant for a day or evening... and the overall cost is 50% of the restaurant bill. If not less.
I know a group/chama that has built a banda at one of the member's 'backyard' and they meet every so often. They share the cost (& can each invite one other family) by 'charging' an annual fee as well as costs per get-together. Granted the banda is free but it is not fancy... a few chairs, tables & sofas... they even hire extra security on the day. And the cooking is self-cooking though they hire a few folks to clean, cut & dice the 'raw' food...
They have all the fun at 1/2 the cost... -
Coldtusker = MP = 2012
» Rants, Raves & Reviews MPs want to be paid Kes 1,500,000 a month. That is 18,000,000/- per year!!!
And they do jackshit. Some of the constituencies have a GDP less than Kes 100,000,000/-...
Bastards... but not if I get elected as an MP in 2012... and make Kes 1,500,000/- per month... -
KQ protests allocation of Embakasi airport
» Rants, Raves & Reviews KQ protests the corruption & ineptness of KAA (& muhoho-ho-ho) in the matter of the allocation of the Embakasi airport to OnejetOne.
I highlighted the corruption & ineptness of the KAA earlier.
Naikuni of KQ told NTV that the 'expansion' at the airport is 4 years behind schedule. KQ's aircraft are parked all over since JKIA's parking aprons are not ready for use.
Poor KQ. They have been trying to get KAA to expand JKIA since 2002 when they expected a huge jump in passenger numbers!
According to NTV, KQ spends almost KShs 100,000,000 a month at the Panari Hotel - the only hotel that by-passes the traffic prone Uhuru Highway - to accommodate passengers whose flights have been cancelled or delayed.
BTW... I have a gut feeling that muhoho-ho-ho (& family/cronies) either took a cash bribe or an ownership/profit stake from the developers of the hotel-retail complex being developed at JKIA. -
Sameer Africa goofs!
» Rants, Raves & Reviews I was flipping thru the 2008 Annual Report for Sameer Africa...
The notice on pg 6 says the AGM will be held on Friday 3rd April 2009 at 11am.
The proxy form says the AGM will be held on 2nd April 2009 at 11am.
They produce one Annual Report a year... they have one AGM... can't they get the date right? -
Investing in Property in Kenya is foolish
» Rants, Raves & Reviews
Another reason why I do NOT believe investing in property in Kenya. I also blogged on why I don't invest in property in Kenya... Here is the link to that.
AFTER planning approvals, AFTER construction permits, AFTER construction, AFTER occupancy permits, AFTER... AFTER... the government wakes up and condemns the Westgate and Ukay malls.
I do not have the full details on the matter... nor who is right or wrong...
The concept of property rights simply does not exist in Kenya.
Examples:
- Land-grabbing by the political elite (jomo 'crooked wa ngengi' kenyatta & cronies) in the 60s & 70s.- Land purchased from the 'White Farmers' redistributed to the politically connected. Real landless lose to the already landed in the 60s.
- Expropriation of property & businesses of Kenyan-Asians in the 1960s & 1970s.- Forcible removal/eviction of 'up-country' folk during the Likoni clashes in the 1990s.- dan moi would sign away government land as a reward for his cronies.- Forcible removal (through violence) of Kikuyus from many sections of the Rift Valley in 2008. - Fake Title Deeds and 'missing' files at the Lands Office.
- Adverts in the newspaper on a regular basis about caveats on land for sale (or not for sale).
- Signboards all over Nairobi proclaiming "This Land Is Not For Sale".
I believe in investing in Africa (incl Kenya) but not in land or property. For residents/citizens,I recommend at most a modest (or affordable within their portfolio) house but not much more than that!
Now... I am thinking how much exposure Kenyan banks have to 'condemned' land or buildings. I am worried...
Of course, while pretending to care about the environment... the government is on a tear condemning fragile eco-systems like the Tana Delta & Masai Mara. -
Taxes to go up - Kenya
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Whereas uhuru kenyatta claims that the government will not increase local or foreign debt to bridge the deficit. Also he claims no increase in taxes.
Yeah, right.
Taxes were raised on alcoholic drinks in late 2008. Add extra fees that the municipalities keep on dreaming up. Add interest payments on the sale of government bills & bonds...
And all this adds up as a tax. Indirect but a tax!
How can uhuru keep a straight face when MPs & ministers pay (almost) zero taxes on their income?
uhuru defended the grand coalition government as something 'we' chose. Who is we? I am NOT included in that 'we'. A bunch of thieving & greedy bastards chose to create 42 member cabinet is NOT 'we'.
And GoK ministers get at least 2 high-end gas guzzler (including uhuru) as well as 'chase cars'. And they drive at high speeds which is fuel inefficient!!!
The official car of the PM of Japan (MUCH, MUCH larger economy) is a regular Toyota Century or Lexus LS600hl.
I wonder what the Finance Minister of India ( 1.1bn people & MUCH larger economy) get as his official car... I betcha it is not even close to uhuru's gas-guzzling cars!
Singapore's prez has a 2001 Lexus LS430 & 1999 Mercedes Benz s320L. Dare I even compare Singapore's Per Capita Income with Kenya's?
And the PM of Singapore usually travels in a MB S280. No gas-guzzling Hummer!!! -
African Banks - Internationalisation
» Rants, Raves & Reviews African banks are rather small (assets or capitalisation) compared to their international peers.
The only countries with banks of 'decent' size are either S.African (S.Africa proper), N.African (Egypt, Morocco) or W.African (Ecobank & Nigerian banks).
But as we have seen... size does not matter. After all Bank of America & Citibank are among the largest banks in the USA. And we have Lloyds & HBOS in the UK. All are in trouble.
I expect the large 'international' US banks e.g. Citigroup & BofA will shrink or sell their foreign operations over the next few years to raise cash to pay off debts.
West European 'international' banks are also feeling the hurt including Barclays & UBS. Many French, German & Swiss banks are also hurting.
HSBC & Standard Chartered may survive the current problems but in my view they are really Asian (Chinese & Hong Kong) banks.
Now... I think that most African banks will weather the storm. And grow from strength to strength.Whereas all do not (& cannot) have ambitions to become '' international" banks... I think a few will do so over the next 5 years. And become much stronger. Standard Bank of S. Africa (Stanbic) is moving into other markets by buying out small to mid-sized banks.
I remain a sceptic of Nigerian banks. They have tried to expand but I do NOT trust their balance sheets.
A major factor that will push internationalization of African banks is the return of diasporans with the relevant expertise.
All said and done... I do hope that African banks can reach all parts of Africa. And provide a product to all Africans - whatever their socio-economic status.
Mobile Payment Systems & Mobile Funds Transfer systems have already penetrated huge swathes of the cash transfer market. -
Kenya Airports Authority - Coldtusker vindicated - Again & Again...
» Rants, Raves & Reviews
It seems the nincompoops (or merely the corrupt) at KAA are at it again.
KAA's CEO is a george muhoho-ho-ho (whose nephew, uhuru kenyatta, is Kenya's Finance Minister & a Deputy Prime Minister) who has extensive political connections. Of course, GM got the job not on merit but thanks to his golfing buddy mwai kibaki (Kenya's current president).
For those unfamilar with uhuru's background... His father was Kenya's first president & an internationally infamous land-grabber. jomo kenyatta (real name kamau aka 'crooked' wa ngengi) never saw a piece of land he didn't like. For free or at a huge discount to market value!
Anyway, so GM heads KAA which runs jomo kenyatta int'l airport (crooked loved naming public projects after himself) in Nairobi. JKIA was built in the 1970s & has seen little improvement since. It is a small, stuffy, congested & lousy airport for a city the size/status of Nairobi.
It is amazing that Kenya Airways has managed to grow despite JKIA being its hub. I find using JKIA to be torture.
So... it seems that a 'politically connected' airline (OneJetOne) will be allocated the old Embakasi Airport in exchange for (fill in the blank). As an FYI, OneJetOne's parent (AirSouthAsia) does not have permission to fly out of it's home base in Sri Lanka.
Whereas JKIA faces immense challenges especially as regards congestion, there have been half-hearted attempts to increase the size of the airport. Nothing major has been done so far. A prior plan was rife with problems & rejected by the airlines. It seems that some officials in KAA had more than a passing fiduciary interest.
It seems OneJetOne was given preferential treatment in this deal. Instead of advertising to all & sundry about the possibilities of using the old airport, there was a hush-hush element to the newspaper advert & subsequent lease deal.
Using the past as history, I would not be surprised to learn that georgie muhohohoho & cronies were getting a slice of the action!
And to make matters even worse, one of the directors of OneJetOne is a former PS (gerrishon ikiara) in charge of airlines & airports. And by dint of his government position, he was on Kenya Airways' board of directors & privy to KQ's future plans!
And on a smaller scale, there is the endemic corruption regarding parking at JKIA. KAA does not properly maintain parking markings at JKIA which means police officers wait to pounce on innocent motorists!
The Short-Term Parking at JKIA is inadequate & Long-Term Parking is woefully inadequate. The LTP is dark & deserted... you could be killed & no-one would find your body for day! -
KQ - An Update
» Rants, Raves & Reviews I spoke too soon...
My blogpost on 24 Feb 2009
KQ's share price has tumbled further since I posted the above. At 12.38 pm on 6 Mar 2009 KQ is trading at Kes 17.25 (though the trading is very thin)...
Did I miss anything on my blog post that accounts for the additional decline?
At this point I think KQ should close up shop... to protect the shareholders!
- Sell the planes while there is a market. Emirates & Ethiopian are still buying planes. Perhaps they would be interested in immediate delivery of the newer planes?
- Cancel or transfer leases of the leased planes.
- Sell the older planes to myriad African 'matatu' airlines.
- Sell the routes (if there is value to be gained) &/or landing slots to Emirates, BA, Virgin, KLM or Air Uganda.
- Cancel (or sell/transfer) all plane orders to get back the cash from down-payments/deposits.
- Use the above proceeds to pay off all debtors.
- Close offices & but sell the 'marketing machine' to another airline.
- Take the remaining cash & distribute to shareholders.
I think the above will yield enough cash to pay each shareholder more than 45/- which is far better than the current price realisation!
OR just sell the entire airline to Emirates or Qatar or AF-KLM who will get the enviable & profitable routes as well trained staff & ready to fly planes in one fell swoop at a far lower cost than a de novo set-up. -
Kenya Pipeline Company - Bankrupt?
» Rants, Raves & Reviews KPC has (or will) have lawsuits amounting to a minimum of Kes 7,000,000,000 filed against them in the next 3 months and all related to the triton case. And this does not include Kenol-Kobil's Kes 3,000,000,000 claim against KPC. Indications are that Kenol (very smart folks) will probably win at least Kes 1,000,000,000 against KPC as KPC's inefficiencies & goofs are revealed in the first group of cases.
All said and done, the Government of Kenya will have to either bail out KPC by:- Providing payment guarantees to the banks & other financiers (taxpayers' cost if funds not recovered from Triton/Devani/Cronies).
- Special bonds to KCB (& other firms) similar to bonds given to NBK.
- Sale of KPC & proceeds used to pay-off the financiers.
- Sale of shares in KPC to the Libyans or Chinese or Iranians.
Solution
Mine is simple & elegant (IMHO) based Information as I understand it.
1) Negotiate an out-of-court settlement as to who owes who what. KPC - under the Collateral Management Agreement - is liable to the financiers & Oil Marketers to store, safeguard & deliver the fuel products. A negotiated settlement is cheaper & faster than a protracted court case. It is also less distracting for KCB & KPC so they can concentrate on the business not lawsuits. This settlement shows good faith to foreign financiers as to the will to sort out the problem.
IMMEDIATE ACTION: Sack all 'decision-makers' at KPC & Ministry of Energy (yes, including kiraitu murungi). Then arrest them, assemble evidence & take them to court. (This is under the ideal situation but corruption runs rife in the Kenyan government & unlikely to happen).
IMMEDIATE ACTION: KCB (& GoK) should go after yagnesh devani & his cohorts. All of triton's (& devani's) assets in Kenya should be sold asap (TRANSPARENTLY) to recover as much as possible. Of course, if GoK pays KCB as shown above then the stations/properties belong to GoK.
2a) KPC should be fairly valued without the Triton liabilities.
2b) KCB's Kes 2bn loan should be converted into a long-term loan to KPC secured by KPC's assets.
2c) KCB should undertake to pay off the other financiers but get KPC shares in exchange for the undertaking. A Repurchase Agreement (repo agreement) would allow GoK to buy the shares back. This would be an asset (unlisted shares) for KCB. GoK may remain a shareholder depending on the extent of the assets/liabilities & intrinsic value of KPC.
2d) CBK might be involved since the above actions will require a few 'exception' for KCB considering asset ownership & lending to a single entity. These are trying times & require out of the box solutions.
2e) KCB can either pay off the other financiers - of course, this would be negotiated - or negotiate the payables as a 'loan from other finance institutions'. It is a liability for KCB but 'safer' for the financiers.
2f) KCB & the other financers would drop the lawsuits against KPC.
3) KCB should be allowed to package & sell the income+assets from KPC to other banks or investors but under the repo agreement. Essentially, it is a syndicated loan.
4a) KCB would hire competent managers to run KPC as a private firm.
4b) In the meantime, GoK (in conjunction with KCB) should 'prep' KPC for eventual privatisation. This means clean out the rot. Fire inefficient or unqualified staff. Enact better policies, regulations & laws. Complete the expansion plans. Complete the pipeline capacity enhancement.
5) Once KPC is stabilised, GoK should arrange for the sale of shares KCB 'owns' in KPC (at least 75%) to the Kenyan public through the NSE, to enable KCB recover its cash. After KCB has been repaid all its dues (under the repo agreement) by GoK, the balance of shares, if any, would revert to GoK.
6a) I think Kenol has a good case against KPC. Therefore, KPC/GoK should settle with Kenol to prevent any disruption in the oil market as well as provide confidence to foreign financiers.
6b) Sell triton's assets (TRANSPARENTLY) to pay off Kenol. Any outstanding balance owned to Kenol above & beyond that should be provided as 'tax credits' i.e. Kenol can use the tax credit to offset duties/taxes owed to GoK.
6c) Other firms that will accept tax credits include KCB, Total Oil & Shell Kenya. Of course, this all means lower (net) tax receipts for the GoK in the short-run but creates certainty to drive more business activity. - Providing payment guarantees to the banks & other financiers (taxpayers' cost if funds not recovered from Triton/Devani/Cronies).
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ColdTusker applies for the Greatest Job in the World
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Job opening - the Greatest Job in KenyaWould you like to lead the beautiful country of Kenya, where your followers will all be tribal voters, your friends are sycophants, your team an army of highly effective corrupt and evil criminals (all trained at the school of Mwalimu Moi). You will preside over the collapse of an economy and oversee a transformation of a once proud people to a state of beggars.
Kenya
We are a bankrupt country looking for a suitable candidate to rule the nation of some 39 million poor Africans. The ideal candidate should have no scruples, no guilt complexes, and a willingness to break the law (he or she will never be investigated). The candidate should be willing to protect corruption, impunity, illegal forces, and police brutality, willing to turn a blind eye to extrajudicial killings, famine, disease and extreme poverty. He or she should have a crazy spouse whose antics can be used as a diversion or smokescreen when necessary. He or she will accept and protect all wrong doers. He or she may need to devise crafty fund raising schemes to liquidate state assets for purposes of buying elections or lining ones own and friends or relatives, pockets. He or she is required to befriend and work with wanted criminals. He or she must be deaf, blind and mute in order to effectively ignore the rapid decline in state. He can use police force to quell any dissent from the population. He is not expected to know the people, indeed the less he knows the better.Presidency – the job of the president is to amass personal wealth and to protect criminal politicians, family and friends. This job will be starting January 2012.
Job description –ignoring state policies and regulations in order to protect corrupt and criminal politicians and amass wealth.
Performance standards: This is a challenging position and a successful president will be measured by his ability to rig successive elections. He will also exceed the crimes of the previous president past five years within his first term.
Minimum Qualifications – a previous criminal record, ability to steal with impunity, ability to creatively protect corrupt friends. Excellent acting skills especially feigning sickness and ignorance. A network of the worlds most wanted criminals. Colourful wives and friends an advantage. Only blind, deaf mute candidates need apply, alcoholics or other drug dependency preferred.
Special duties – attend state parties, cutting ribbons, drinking at golf competitions, extensive travel to Dubai, China and other shopping havens.
Work schedule and station– one hour per year, timing flexible.
Budget - none, the country is bankrupt
Remuneration – the president can take whatever he desires for himself, family and friends, including cash and properties which can be grabbed as required
Perks – astronomical allowances, access to any land or assets required, Great family benefits, contracts for children. You will never be investigated,
Accountability – none.
Contract terms renewable every 4 years (you can change this and declare presidency for life).
Your team
Prime Minister – Your closest asset. Responsible for for maintaining a state of fear, coordinating mass killings, rape and looting. In charge of overseeing a parallel corruption system, ensures protection of criminals, and undermining your government. Responsible for keeping quiet.
Vice president – protects your back and helps orchestrate the illegal acquisition of funds for your next election. The Vice president is responsible for maintaining silence on national scandals.
Cabinet Ministers – People you select for their contribution to your election kitty. Responsible for vomiting on the shoes of donors. These people will serve you faithfully in degazetting forests, stealing grain, stealing pensions etc etc.
Official Spokesperson – Responsible for ensuring you don’t have to appear in person to respond to any uncomfortable scandals like raids on media houses, missing grain, Armenian brothers, police brutality, extrajudicial killings, or arms to Sudan. Responsible for carrying your cross.
First Lady – Your court jester. Fashion oblivious, extreme temper, slap happy. Responsible for national entertainment and creating a diversion when journalists get too close to scandals.
Other wives, mistresses and sycophants – Your silent loyal army from the mountains that does most of your work. Responsible for setting fashion standards, organizing deals, being proxies on fishy contracts, representing you incognito, and are the real center of power in the country.
Members of parliament – a bunch of bickering elected folk who need to pay off their votes. Responsible for setting their own salaries and perks.
Apply now to Applications@ThegreatestjobinKenya.con
Full credit to http://wildaboutafrica.wordpress.com
-
Kenya Airways - Oversold?
» Rants, Raves & Reviews I was reviewing share prices vs reported book values & my own 'projections' of profits. So what follows are my own views/opinions.
I will discuss the prospects of various listed firms as businesses with a discussion of the share prices as well. As many of you know I am a huge Warren Buffet fan so I hope I do him justice.
Pick # 1 (BTW, WB does not believe in investing in airlines... I know, I know...)
Kenya Airways (KQ) - Price on 24-02-2009 is 20/-
KQ has faced a tough 3 years with the plane crash in May 2007 - this was at the peak for KQ - and then the hits started;
- elections in late 2007
- post-election violence in 2008
- record high oil/fuel prices
- global financial turmoil in late 2008 & continuing
So the question is whither KQ as a business?
Let's do a SWOT Analysis (I will update it as I get comments)
Strengths- KQ is among Africa's largest & strongest airlines. Dominant in E & C Africa.
- Strong Balance Sheet (Sep 30 2008) shows Kes 10bn in cash/liquid assets. Approx 20/- per share.
- National airline thus an advantage in getting airport slots in bilateral agreements.
- Privatized for over a decade. GoK owns 23%. KLM 26%. Better management vs government controlled firms.
- KQ can survive 2 years of losses while smaller airlines will collapse.
- Majority of the revenue is in US$, GBP & Euros.
- Aircraft have high fixed costs but deployment is flexible.
- Single hub (JKIA) thus exposure to local politics - see effect on KQ during Nov 08-Mar 09 election period.
- Inefficient hub (JKIA is controlled by the GoK) leading to inefficiencies.
- Reliance on government controlled entities for Jet A1 fuel. KQ faces problems sourcing fuel in various countries including Kenya, Ghana, DRC, Zambia, etc.
- Over-reliance on Europe for tourists. Credit crunch in Europe will hurt KQ.
- Inflexible (high fixed-cost) aircraft. Only 3 Embraers (E-190). The rest are Boeing jets.
- Higher cost airline with large(r), unionized & inflexible contingent of staff.
Opportunities- Africa, especially Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), has the lowest airline penetration.
- Ineffecient government owned/controlled carriers (e.g. Air Tanzania, Air Zimbabwe, SAA) benefits KQ.
- Increasing African trade with the Mid-East, Far East, China & India will increase passenger & cargo numbers.
- Huge potential in tourism from the increasingly wealthier Chinese, Indians & Middle Easterners.
- KQ has become the 'local' or 'regional' airline for many SSA countries e.g. Lusaka-Lilongwe, Lagos-Abidjan-Monrovia, Accra-Freetown, etc.
- Global Financial Crisis will enable 787 deliveries to be made sooner than expected.
- Ethiopian Airlines has a stronger pan-African presence & better global reach vs KQ. And it keeps growing.
- Airlines privatizing - or recently privatized - all over Africa including Air Tanzania, Air Uganda, Air Malawi, etc.
- New & expanding Low-Cost Airlines (Jetlink, Fly540)
- Low purchasing power in SSA means air travel is a luxury for 99% of the population thus limited growth in the next 5 years.
- High & volatile oil (fuel) prices.
- Low barriers to entry. Anyone can buy a plane (see Fly540, Air Uganda). Both in Kenya & in SSA.
Financial Discussion- KQ has almost 20/- (per Sep 30 2008 balance sheet) in cash or near-cash. The 1H 2008-9 period was barely profitable BUT most other airlines made losses.
- Oil prices were at their peak in 1H 2008-9 but they have dropped by 65% though KQ entered into unfavourable hedges which will continue into 2009. KQ will see benefits of lower prices in 2009-10.
- KQ has been aggressively expanding in 2008. KQ will continue expanding into Africa & globally in 2009:
- Dhaka (Bangladesh)
- Kisangani (DRC)
- Libreville
- Blantyre (Malawi)
- Malabo (Equatorial Guinea)
So the business is OK. Sustainable. And growing 50% over the next 3-5 years.
Earnings: KQ barely managed 1.59 for 1H 2008-9. I expect a better 2H thus at least 3.50 for FY 2008-9 which leads me to say BUY.
PE = 6x which is great. Cash flow will be lower as KQ spends to expand.
PB = 0.5 (Kes depreciation has boosted value of aircraft/assets but note an offset for US$ loans/liabilities) -
Buy Kenyan, Build Kenya
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Kenyans need to make good choices. Now. To save themselves.
Buy Kenyan
It is as simple as that.
Let me state from the outset. Kenyan manufacturers need to be price & quality competitive. This is not a choice for them. They need to give Kenyans value.
For those who cry 'protectionism', I am NOT advocating tariff barriers or quotas or subsidies. I do encourage additional (non-monetary i.e. subsidies) incentives for Kenyan firms like better roads/infrastructure, staff training, lower tax rates, etc.
Your local Nakumatt (or Tusky or Uchumi or grocer) stocks too many foreign goods esp foods. Kenya is an agricultural country. We need to become a major agro-processor as well.
Baked Beans (I like Baked Beans on Toast)
Kenylon (Kabazi Canners of Kenya) manufactures baked beans but it seems Heinz (imported from the UK via Dubai) seems to has a larger display. There are other local brands BUT the imported brands dominate.
So why does Kenya need to import baked beans?
If Nakumatt sells 100,000 cans of Heinz beans (89/-) per month, that would 'save' Kenya $1,200,000 (Kes 100,000,000) annually. 'Save' above means reduce the need for forex to fund imports. I am assuming retail margins of 10%
KShs 100 mn paid to Kabazi means a good portion goes to local farmers, factory workers, other local manufacturers & transporters. And this gets recycled into the local economy as these 'beneficiaries' buy other local goods.
Butter & Cheese
Why does Kenya import butter from New Zealand via Dubai?
KCC, Brookside, Daima, etc has great milk products. We export to the middle east, so why do we import these? We used to import milk products from China. Why?
Kenyan farmers will increase production IF we reduce imports thus boosting local demand.
Snacks/Chocolates/Prepared Foods
I am amazed that Kenya imports crisps, chocolates, biscuits, cereals, chevda (among other Indian snacks), etc
Kenyans produce great products so why the need to import???
Crisps - Krackles, Tropical Heat, etc
Chocolates - Cadburys, Out of Africa (though most ingredients are imported)
Biscuits - House of Manji (the best Digestives), Brittania
Cereals - Weetabix (local), Procter & Allan, etc
Indian snacks - Tropical Heat, Deeps, etc
Kenyan products in this category are generally cheaper than the imports yet we blow away forex & the creation of local jobs.
Why do Kenyans buy 'prepared foods' when we can hire or buy freshly prepared foods locally. As for convenience, there are local firms & SMEs in the market.
Juices/Squashes (fruit drink mixes)
Why don't Kenyans buy more locally produced juice or juice blends or even fruit drink mixes.
There are many local players in this market including:
Del Monte (locally grown pineapples)
Kenylon
Quencher (mainly fruit drink mixes)
And even when we import juices, why not just concentrates that can be re-constituted & packed in Kenya.
And why not drink FRESHLY SQUEEZED juices. Creates jobs for maids, hotel/restaurant workers, etc. Kenyan 'fruit juice' businesses need to lower prices for freshly squeezed juices. I miss the fresh fruit carts in Nairobi's CBD. I could get a juicy slice of pineapple for a mere 10/-.
Spirits/Beer/Wines/Alcohol
I know Kenyan spirts leave little to the imagination but there is hope. Let's by more EABL, Keroche & London Distiller products.
There are few local wines (Mara is imported from S.Africa). Locally produced wines should attract lower taxes. There are other fruit wines that can be produced from locally grown fruits including:
- Passion fruits (I recall passiflora but too dry for my tastes)
- Oranges
- Mango (Has anyone tried?)
- Pineapples (I used to brew a weak version)
- Sugarcane (Rum)
I buy the local Kenya Gold (instead of the imported Baileys) & the local Smirnoff (vs imported vodkas).
And the above is a small sample of the imports. We could 'save' at least $100,000,000 in forex annually if we looked inwards. Add the jobs Kenya could create & the Global Financial Crisis would look less daunting. -
Family firms out-perform 'public' firms
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Very interesting article from the ECONOMIST.
Also brings to mind Chandaria Industries (Comcraft Group) of Kenya. The 3rd generation is at work. And it remains private. -
NSSF (Kenya) vs Temasek (Singapore)
» Rants, Raves & Reviews I admire Lee Kuan Yew (the former PM of Singapore) for the discipline he installed in Singapore.
As has been many times before, economically Kenya & Singapore were at 'similar' levels in 1963 except Kenya has much more 'potential'.
Singapore had LKY. Kenya had crooked wa ngengi (aka jomo 'land grabbing' kenyatta) & then dan 'uber-thief' moi.
Singapore has a Sovereign Wealth Fund called Temasek. Acknowledging deficiencies in managing the SWF, Singapore has hired heavy hitters who happen to be expats.
Kenya has NSSF. The same corrupt board is 're-hired' even after losing billions in scandals.
Sigh. -
The Fertilizer scam to start soon ...
» Rants, Raves & Reviews The Fertilizer scam to start soon as government imports trickle in...
kibaki said - I paraphrase - 'Do not look for others to blame for the scams'. Shouldn't he have said 'The buck stops with me'?
Anyway, as I predicted in my earlier blogpost, it is a matter of time. -
Sameer Africa posts better results - Not really
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Year End 31 Dec.
Sales down 13% yoy.
Gross Profit down 6% yoy.
Other Operating Profit up 197% yoy. Ahhh... no details on what this is. Sale of assets?
PAT up by 26% yoy BUT see "Other Operating Profit".
Sameer Africa was affected by the PEV in 2008 & the subsequent knock-on effect on sales later in the year. Anyway, that is history.
How will 2009 be?
IMHO, it will be much tougher. Why?
- Costs of production in Kenya remains high including interest costs, electricity & transport costs.
- The depreciation of the KShs vs US$ will hurt import input costs. Imported might be pricier if imported from non-US$ countries e.g. India
- Competition from multiple brands e.g. Pirelli, Michelin, Apollo, etc
Firestone used to be the first choice for Kenyans but I think there has been a major shift since it became Yana. Nakumatt sells 5+ brands & this shows a change in preferences. Yana tyres are NOT the cheapest in the market. Yana needs to sell the 'quality' of their brand to succeed.
2010 - The business park should be reaady but I do not trust naushad merali. I wonder how much SA will benefit from the business park vs merali. I think merali will suck the majority of the profits/gains from the business park.
Anyway, let's wait for the Annual Report. -
Coming soon to Kenya - The Grand Fertilizer Scam
» Rants, Raves & Reviews I, Coldtusker, GUARANTEE that the decision by the government of Kenya to import, subsidise & distribute fertilizer will be beset by multiple scams involving one or more of the following:
A - The 'wrong' (type, grades, mixes, combinations) fertilizer will be imported/distributed to the areas.
B - Politically connected firms & individuals (e.g. jackson kibor & maize) will buy the subsidised fertilizer & sell it at higher prices.
C - In many cases the fertilizer will reach the farmers AFTER the planting season is over. Or reach them when it is not as effective/ideal.
D - Gov't will ultimately deliver fertilizer at prices higher than what private firms can. If not for subsidies, the price of government fertilizer will be higher than private firms!
E - In some cases, the fertilizer will be left to 'spoil' & will be disposed off as 'junk' or 'obsolete' or 'ineffective'.
PLEASE quote me if any if the above does not happen IF the government goes ahead with the foolhardy idea of importing & distributing fertilizer through the NCPB. -
Tidbits from
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Japan's Finance Minister resigns coz he appeared to be drunk at a conference. He claims it was a combination of jet lag & cold medicine.
Kenya's current FM, uhuru kenyatta, looks drunk. All the time. Just joking. I hope he does better than most of the jokers Kenya has had in the past especially the george 'goldenberg' saitoti.
We all know Kenya's former FM (guess who???) is a former drunk. Kudos to him on kicking the habit but not the lethargy.
Now for the serious part: Kenyan ministers NEVER resign for any sort of foible or corruption. Starting with paul ngei to william ruto. And so many in between!!!
African legislators are crooks. No matter where.
KPC in more trouble. Again!!! Kenol-Kobil plays tough with KPC.
BBK's group results PBT up 13% but PAT up 12.5% (EPS of 4.10), BBK is trading at a historic P/E of 10. -
Rwanda - The New Hope of Africa Part 2
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Unlike Kenya, Rwanda (under Paul Kagame) is taking a serious stand against corruption.
When I spoke to folks doing business in Rwanda, they say corruption tends to be low-level but structures are in place to deal with serious corruption.
Paul Kagame wants to make Rwanda the Singapore of Africa. Paul is a 'benevolent dictator' on a similar plane as Lee Kuan Yew & he is reportedly as clean as it gets.
Paul - unlike most African rulers (thieves) gave up his ancestral land since he did not need it!!!
In Kenya, jomo kenyatta & dan moi were unabashed kleptocrats! -
Kenya Airport Authority - Corrupt & Inept
» Rants, Raves & Reviews The idiots at Kenya Airport Authority are it again!
The corrupt & inept (yep, both) could not 'control' the electricity outage situation at the Mombasa 'International' Airport.
Shouldn't MIA have an emergency electricity generator that powers basic functions so the airport can continue running albeit at a 'slower' pace?
What about a contingency plan to provide chairs, shade or water to passengers stuck at the airport?
I have railed against the corrupt & inept idiots running KAA & how they sabotage Kenya's tourism industry.
This a mere sample... there are dozens of horror stories of KAA's ineptness!
July 2007 - Landing lights out
Oct 2008 - No generators at the airport
I feel sorry for the passengers, tourists, KQ & other airlines operating in Kenya. -
I want me a BarackBerry
» Rants, Raves & Reviews It turns out that Obama does not use a BlackBerry but a BarackBerry...
The BlackBerry can't hold a candle to the Sectera Edge - not your father's Palm Treo - that BHO uses!
I wonder if one of the games on the Sectera is 'Nuke'em Iran?
Anyway, I want one... am I asking too much?
BTW, the Business Daily Africa claims BHO uses a BlackBerry but we know better! -
Is South Africa really part of Sub-Saharan Africa?
» Rants, Raves & Reviews Gautrain is a world-class train system being built in S.Africa. Amazing.
In the meantime, the Kenyan government is hosting a 'Kenya We Want' conference. What bullshit. A little common sense would be much cheaper!
My Solutions:
kibaki should fire ALL his corrupt & inept ministers (incl saitoti, kimunya, etc) & a huge chunk of our problems would be solved.
kibaki should reveal WHY the libyans (among other groups) are being favoured. And STOP the favouritism & nepotism.
Kenyans want to know if the libyans contributed funds towards kibaki's re-election campaign in exchange for sweetheart deals. No more sweetheart deals.
If the GoK privatised KPC among other government institutions, then we would not need silly conferences.
Raila should drop his opposition to PRIVATE investments. This is not the communist Soviet republic. We need COMPETITION.
All MPs & ministers should pay taxes on their entire salaries & perks! And their pay should be linked to performance!
Common sense is not so common. Or is the conference simply another way to siphon government funds & provide PR? -
roocy kibaki blames saitoti for molo deaths
» Rants, Raves & Reviews roocy kibaki blames george saitoti for the Molo deaths!
If this was not tragic, this is a dark comedy.
roocy's hubby, the Kenyan prez (if you believe sam 'cant count' kivuitu) has been in the government since 1963 as Finance Minister, VP or Prez. And Kenyans have been raped by the politicians since 1963.
Land-grabbing by kenyatta's regime. All sorts of other scandals during moi's regime. Anglo-fleecing, KPC-Triton & maize scams during his regime.
She says that MPs should use their humongous salaries to pay for starving constituents. Well, what about her horrendous large salary & office expenses for doing jackshit? And her hubby who gets paid more than MOST presidents or prime ministers in DEVELOPED countries!
How does she blame saitoti (I hold no torch that thief & incompetent either) for not providing 'civic' education?
Don't schools teach - or common sense - that petrol is FLAMMABLE & dangerous?
So is Saitoti on the way out?
News Break: One day after the Molo Fuel Fire, a railcar derailed near Naivasha with 100,000 litres of UNPROCESSED COOKING OIL. And the thieves were at it again. Oblivious of the danger. Using this oil as 'food' can kill due to impurities. All I can say is expect a few more sick people. Or a few more dead.
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