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KA-INVESTOR
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2:18
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 Celtel International, a leading mobile telephone service provider across Africa could be in a major re-branding strategy before the end of this year. The move could see the company drop the Celtel brand and adopt a completely new identity - Zain. The new name is used by celtel’s parent company MTC Group in other nations except the African market. MTC group says the re-branding is meant to re-invent the regional brand into a global brand. Experts described the new logo as too dark and moody. The re-branding process has reportedly begun in Kuwait and is expected to spread to other MTC-branded operations in the Middle East then Africa. Brandscape has more discussions on Celtel re-branding and other branding issues.
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10:02
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Finally, Safaricom IPO has been oversubscribed and we are set for the minute allocations we are used to. Despite the instability witnessed in the country at the beginning of the year, the IPO was surprisingly oversubscribed by 382% - raising Ksh.119 billion. To some extend I feel duped. I was basing my investment decision on the fact that many people will not buy into it because of the post election chaos. So what could have happened if these IPO had come last year when everybody was itching for it? What about if BoT had allowed Tanzanians to participate in the IPO? Probably we would have seen a 500% oversubscription.
With Ksh.50 billion safely in the net, the IPO has surpassed its goals; namely: maximizing revenues for the Treasury, increasing international investor interest in the NSE and deepening the market. Safaricom IPO is now the Largest Sub-Saharan IPO ever completed (previously SANLAM and Telkom S. A from South Africa were the largest). In Africa as a whole it’s now the third largest IPO after those of Maroc Telecom and Telecom Egypt. Safaricom will most probably announce their ever impressive year end results this May. The company had Ksh.16 billion profits before tax for the 9 month ended December 2007 (almost equal to ksh.17 billion full years profit in 2007), up from Ksh.12 billion last year – 2008 full year pre-tax profit may hit ksh.22 billion. So will the dividend only accrue to the old shareholders (GoK, Vodafone & Mobitelea) or will the new shareholders also be included? I would advocate for the latter to sooth the bitter retail investors – like me - that feel they have been taken for a ride.
What options do retail investors have now? Looking at the small number of shares we will be allocated we don’t have many options: Option 1
Stay put – the bog boys and the QII will – and then when short term speculators will be selling @Ksh.10, top up your account with as many shares as you can using your refund. Then enjoy the ride to supernormal gains. Option 2
Swallow your anger (asira za chura na ng’ombe) and reinvest your refund in the shares once they start trading on June 9th and wait for an opportune time (probably before Telkom K and Celtel K catch up) and price to cash out. Option 3
Wait for your CDS account to be credited and sell the shares as soon as they hit Ksh.10. then chase around for your refund and invest in the next big thing (Coop bank IPO, KCB & HFCK right issues, NMG share split or Equity bank, which is definitely headed for a split).
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9:45
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 Starting at 18:00 GMT on May 10, 2008, locations in Cairo, Kigali, London, Los Angeles, Mumbai, and Rio de Janeiro will be linked for a live program of powerful films, live music, and visionary speakers. The entire program will be broadcast – in seven languages – to millions of people worldwide through the internet, television, and mobile phones.
The 24 short films to be featured have been selected from an international competition that generated more than 2,500 submissions from over one hundred countries. The films were chosen based on their ability to inspire, transform, and allow us see the world through another person's eyes. Details on the Pangea Day films can be viewed here. The program will also include a number of exceptional speakers and musical performers. Queen Noor of Jordan, CNN's Christiane Amanpour, musician/activist Bob Geldof, and Iranian rock phenom Hypernova are among those taking part. About Pangea Day: Inspired by the 2006 TED Prize wish of documentary filmmaker Jehane Noujaim, Pangea Day endeavors to bring the world together and promote understanding and tolerance through film. Pangea Day is a celebration of what unites us, rather than what divides us. Movies can't change the world. But the people who watch them can. After May 10, Pangea Day organizers will facilitate community-building activities around the world by connecting inspired viewers with organizations doing groundbreaking work. For more information, please visit For more information see; http://www.pangeaday.org/
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9:15
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 (This post is in memory of all the 114 passengers who perished in the crash) It’s exactly one year since KQ flight 507 went down in Duala – Cameroon. Up to now, no official report has been released on the real cause of the crash. Kenya Airways is now seeking the help of the Kenya government and the US Administration, manufacturers of the Boeing, to compel the Cameroonian authorities to release the one year old report. The Boeing 737-800 series was only 6 months old and so the issue of a technical hitch could not arise. Two weeks ago, another 737-800 series belonging to KQ overshot the runway at the Entebbe International Airport in Uganda, and once again the incident was blamed on bad weather. On Friday last week, a Kenya Airways flight from Kisumu to Nairobi aborted after what the airline said was a small technical hitch (what hitch?) Although KQ CEO, Titus Naikuni, came out defending his company’s record and said that such hitches are expected taking into account the volume of flights KQ covers, it leaves a lot to beg. The frequency of the recent incidences does not look normal at all. Could this be a case of mismanagement? It’s clearly understood that workers at this flight company are quite overworked and may be under performing not due to laziness, but fatigue. What KQ needs is a complete overhaul and not a re-branding, hiking fares or cancellation of partnerships. The whole management team needs to be replaced with a new one with more stringent performance contracts. Without this the inefficient rot in there will never be dealt with and more disappointing things will happen. We cannot afford to lose more lives just because we want to serve vested interests. Our African Pride is bigger than that. The company is faced with very tough industry times (increased fuel prices, stringent terrorism laws and stiff competition from international Airlines) and cannot afford to goof around. I think making the KQ private owned or fully owned by the public will make it more efficient and accountable to its customers. Things like 48 hours delays of flights will be a thing of the past.
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9:31
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Safaricom has partner with DSTV to provide Mobile TV to their subscribers. Mobile TV is a technology that allows people to view regular live television content on their mobile phones or other mobile devices that they get through traditional cable or pay TV subscriptions at home. 
Research indicate that mobile phones will remain the central multi-purpose device for the foreseeable future, outnumbering any other mobile devices like digital media players and pocket PCs. 84% of mobile phone users in countries where Mobile TV has been launched are interested in using Mobile TV Service provided it is commonly available and affordable. Close to 60% of these will prefer watching the same content that they get on TV at home. News, sports, music videos and Game shows are the four dominant types of content that the surveyed users will prefer watching on mobile TV. Personally I would go for it, if the subscription costs are affordable. The possibilities are tremendous. Getting up-to-date news on the go, watching a live soccer matches when you are in the rural or even following your favorite series anywhere you are. It’s just amazing, I bet the service will be quite popular. The big question however is the pricing, which in turns depends on how much it will cost the mobile services provider. Safaricom plans to price it at Ksh.1,000 as from 1st July, but it will be free before June 30. This will be a boon for high end mobile handsets as most of the users will upgrade their handsets specifically to get mobile TV on their handsets. The recommended phone type by Safaricom cost at least Ksh.25,000 per set. The success however, will be dependent on content offered and price charged for the service Would you go for mobile TV if the prices are kept in the range of Ksh.1,000 per month?
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5:37
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Now that the window of application for the Safaricom IPO has finally closed, everybody is waiting to cash-in in one of the ‘biggest bets’ of the year. Most of the optimists that queued up for hours just to get a piece of this giant offer are now crossing their fingers that the share price will double or triple {to ksh.10, 15 ….or even 20} once the share hit the trading floor on May 9 th. On the other hand, pessimists or mere IPO-refund-adverse investors who by-passed the IPO hope that many retail investors will off-load in the 1st week so that the share price won’t appreciate that much {hover around Ksh.6 or 7} and they can buy as many shares as possible for the long term. In my view the possibility of this is quite minimal, but I’m ready to get more shares in case it happens. With an oversubscription being more than likely to be the case {even with Tanzanians out}, I hope it will be over 200% so that we claw back more shares from the foreign lot. Anything less than this will mean having your monies tied up in refund cheques. With over 2 million shareholders in their register, Safaricom is in for more headaches during their AGM’s. And I don’t understand how foreign shareholders will be handled when it comes to this. 
The waiting has been long and I’m glad that at last this is behind us. For over two years, the debate on Safaricom the company and Safaricom the IPO, its Mobitelea connections and many other things have been making rounds in the blogs. Some heated discussions have taken place, but after all is said and done the Mobitelea culprits are still untouchables. So forgetting about them is the only feasible option.
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3:51
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Confused investors: there seems to be too much information flowing around (Brokers advert and bank loans) and many investors are left confused on what is right and what isn’t. The fact is, where money is involved the truth is usually the first casualty. Many applicants have been misadvised into taking loans without proper analysis (IPO euphoria), opening multiple accounts to ‘maximize’ on allocations and some are even wondering who’s telling the truth after read caveat emptor on the IPO from ODM and Africog. As Concept will put it, there is too much information noise to understand who is saying it right.
‘ Undugu’ keeps Tanzanians out: The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) barred Tanzanians against participating in the Safaricom IPO. The main reason being that Safaricom had not made any commitment to cross-listing at the DSE (I believe this could have been done later on). But it’s evident that brokers there are not taking it in good faith. They have questioned the legality of the directive by BoT. And even after the CMA chairman, Jimnah, tried to lure the BoT to rescind on its decision, Kenyan brokers are saying the Tanzanian snub will not dent the IPO hopes. But the rejection by BoT is a clear blow to the regions integration.
1.65 million applications … and counting: data available at Nation media indicate that over 1.65 million applications have been made for the Safaricom IPO, with 50,000 being online application. Taking into account the enormous amount of applications to be made, I preferred the manual application for my shares over the online one. With the inefficiencies our brokers have I’m skeptical that the online applications will be handled well. But let’s wait and see. One of the leading banks has also issued over ksh15 billion in loans to applicants (could this be Equity bank…and is it the reason behind the recent rally in its share price to Ksh.185?)
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6:40
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Another week has opened for the Safaricom IPO with more investors rushing to apply for the shares. I hope the number of applications will increase this week as most investors have read the prospectus and sourced for enough funds. Last week was a little bit slow, with most applications coming from non-Kenyans. There are several conflicting analysis on the expected peak for the shares once they hit the trading floor on May 9th. But my prediction is the price will settle some where between Ksh.10 and Ksh.15. Applicants who have been going for loans being hawked by banks for the IPO have learned the tricks of the banks to reap them off. Apart from the interest being charged on the loans, loan applicants have to incur several hidden charges before the loan is awarded. Some of the banks claiming to finance 100% of the IPO application are forcing applicants to open new CDS accounts with them, hence cashing in on the transaction charges too. In Uganda, investors are wary of the Safaricom IPO citing the political uncertainness of Kenya. For a country like Uganda that is quite used to violence than Kenya, it’s really ironical. Most Ugandans are in favour of alternative investments on the Uganda Securities Exchange such as the Uganda Clays rights issue that ended just before Easter and the upcoming New Vision rights issue. In other developments:
- Gold production at Lolgorien, Kenya, by Goldplat Plc. (a UK firm that specialize in producing precious metals like gold, silver and platinum group metals, on the African continent) may commence in the second half of 2008.
-The Uganda Securities Exchange (USE) is planning to immobilize their listed companies share certificates so as to increase on the bourse liquidity. Similarly several firms are set to have rights issues and stock splits to increase on the share supply at the USE.
- ZTE Corporation, China's largest listed telecommunications manufacturer and wireless solutions provider, has signed a deal with the Kenya government to construct an optical network covering the western part of Kenya.
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5:16
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 {an article I wrote for the African Executive early last year...might be turning out to be true!} As some stock exchanges, Kenya and South Africa, around Africa are taking a bear turn an unlikely bourse is on a bull run and going even stronger. The Zimbabwe Stocks Exchange {ZSE} has ballooned to phenomenal levels as a result of the bullish patterns dominating the stock market this year. Most of the counters in ZSE have recorded enormous gains with the mainstream industrial index growing by over 600% Despite the big economic crisis that has been facing Zimbabwe; the ZSE has managed to post very impressive performance two years in a row, 2005 and 2006, beating the high inflation rate that plagues the country according to The Africa Stock Exchanges Association (ASEA). Thanks to the on going stocks rally, the ZSE market is now worth a staggering Z$405 trillion in market capitalization, after rising a steep 275 percent in just three days this week. While market capitalization (value of a company calculated by multiplying the number of shares in issue by the current stock price) does not reflect the actual performance of a company, it provides a useful guide to movements in the share price of a listed company. The huge increase in the market capitalization of the 75 listed companies in ZSE suggests, obviously, that the amount of trade is so high. This begs the question; why does the ZSE perform so well when everything is apparently in turmoil? Ideologically, a country’s stock market performance should reflect the performance of the economy. But in the case of Zimbabwe, this does not apply. Institutional investors and individuals from South Africa and Britain are simply eyeing the stock market in the belief that
 The remaining three constituencies (out of the 210 that exist) will be determined by by-elections following the deaths of three candidates prior to the March 29th elections: Pelandaba/Mpopoma, Gwanda South, and Redcliff
prices will soar if and when Mr. Mugabe steps down and investors regain confidence in the country. This has therefore led to a mad rush for the listed stocks, making the market to have an exceptional bull run in a slump economy. Further more, negative interest rates and inflation have caused a stampede for assets, which have driven share prices to record highs, even in real terms. To these investors – both legitimate and crooks – the early bird catches the worm, and in this case there are too many birds that came in early. The ZSE boom simply reflects profits that have been made on paper while, on the ground, several businesses have gone bankrupt. This pseudo profits, for the foreign investors, could yet vanish into thin air because of currency controls that make it difficult to take money out of the country. The stocks rally may also be because there are very few investment options that can provide real returns in Zimbabwe. Most of the other investment options like mining and land ownership lost their value after most of the European investors moved out due to the turbulent political climate in the country. Hard-line policies by the Zimbabwe government created an inherent risk that most investors were left with the stocks market as the only viable investment. Investors know where good returns are, and the ZSE is one of them. This is why it’s performing above all markets in Africa. The ZSE’s future in the short run indicates a continued upside. Equities are the only other best form of investment in a hyperinflationary environment such as the one existing in Zimbabwe. At the moment, there is no reason for an immediate stop in the Bull Run. But as the demand for stocks continue to sore, the market capitalization will eventually reduce. Stocks which are absurdly overvalued will lose more than proportionately when normalcy returns and the market may even be faced with an eminent crash. The viability of the decision to invest in the future of Mugabe’s tenure in power is simply a wrong investment factor. It is not a good sign for the ZSE, especially for a country whose economy is indicating otherwise. It’s only a matter of time before the stocks market follows the downward trend that the Zimbabwe economy has taken, and when that happens there will be no redeeming of losses.
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7:00
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 Subscribers in the coming Safaricom IPO will now be able to make their applications on-line. This is expected to reduce the work load and queues at the brokers’ offices. But already the site is inaccessible only two days after being launched. Then again with the ‘computer problems’ KNEC has been having over last year KCSE results, I’m really worried with what kind of short comings we should expect from this on-line application system. I hope it works out well. The IPO is widely expected to be oversubscribed by over 200% with cold tusker even giving a detailed projection of how this could happen. The IPO is expected to atrract over a million applications from all over the world. As much as retail investors would have wished for the Delivery Versus Payment (DVP) Method to be applied on all subscribers, this will not be possible and they have been left out to run around after their refunds for the next few weeks after the IPO. Luckily, incase of an oversubscription the shares will be allocated pro-rata and if the oversubscription is over 200% some of the share allocated to foreign investors will be ploughed back to the local investors. My caution goes to anyone hoping to buy into the IPO using a bank loan, which most banks are more than willing to give out. CCsf had a very appealing Safaricom IPO leverage product last year, but I’m unsure if they still have it on offer this time.
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6:34
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Safari Park hotel in conjuction with KBC have this Easter special offer with the proceeds going towards helping the IDP. If you believe in helping our brothers and sisters in the camps, please get yourself their for a fun filled family day. Talk of killing two birds with one stone. 
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7:07
From: KA-INVESTOR
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BD indicated in their paper today that investor are selling off their stocks in preparation for the Safaricom IPO at the end of this months or first week of April. Already some stockbrokers (read Dyer & Blair) are recruiting more staff in preparation for the heavy work load. The IPO is most likely to be priced at ksh.5 per share with a minimum application 1,000 shares, to attract more retail investors and build the badly damaged confidence in the market. Get yourself ready!
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3:05
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Brokers have chosen a very wrong time to screw up. And they are doing it big time! Lucky for them, there are several banks (Equity, KCB, Chase, HFCK, Family, NIC, Old Mutual et. al.) out there hawking for a place on the NSE and are more than ready to snatch up their trading licenses and compensate their disgruntled investors no matter how much that will cost. I believe this has made the perpetrators of these hideous crimes against investors to continue with unabated impunity, knowing the tradition of not being charged in court will be upheld. Coming to think of it, it seems there is more than enough demand for a position on the stocks market. WHY not then allow more brokers to be registered or easily license some banks to trade for their clients? The idea of holding the bourse hostage to a few old boys clubs is not working and its time they let free markets set the course or else NSE is doomed. Mumias transport/farmers crisis Mumias Sugar Company is advertising for track transporters for their canes, after falling out with their current transports over payments. The sugar manufacturer is facing another crisis from its out-grower farmers who are threatening to join the striking transporters if the payment per tonnage is not increased soon. 2008 Young Global Leaders The World Economic Forum has announced its list of 2008 Young Global Leaders. Last year Binyavanga Wainaina was nominated but declined the award. You've got to read his letter. Widget Obsession I don’t know if it’s only me, or all bloggers love widgets? I’m not so much into high-tech stuff, but widgets have got me obsessed and I try all the widgets I can get. I like how White African, Afromusing and mental have their IT thing going, although some of those terms they use leave my head spinning. I recently stumbled on FEEDJIT and neoworx.net which have very great live statistics and pimp-my-blog stuff that you can try, although neoworx is not free.
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8:35
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Written by James Shikwati in the Business DailyI joined Kenyans in celebrating our new found power of the ballot in December 30 2002; the surging crowds exhibited decades of energy that had been held hostage by the Moi regime. We put faith in individuals and were disappointed in 2007. In 2006, hundreds of Kenyans queued outside stock brokerage houses to partake of shares in the country’s biggest Initial Public Offering. Bottled investment thirst by Kenyans was exhibited with little time invested in evaluating the existing capital markets institutions. Again, investors are getting disappointed by the day. The Capital Markets Authority (CMA), the sector regulator, has joined the political elites in giving Kenyans a blank cheque. Reports that individuals at the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) had sought to hush up the weak financial position of the Nyaga Stock Brokers, and that the NSE went ahead to advance Sh100 million only for the CMA to later declare the broker was under receivership must be condemned. The collapse of Francis Thuo and Partners was yet to clear the doubts on the suspicion that Kenya’s stock market is a preserve of 18 brokers who seem keen to stifle competition at all costs. According to the Kenyan Capital Markets Eligibility requirements, for a company to be listed at the NSE, it must, among other factors, have net assets immediately before public offer of not less than Sh20 million. The minimum authorised, issued and fully paid capital should be Sh20 million. These, of course, are regulations that were put in place to ensure that the bourse meets international standards while securing the investments of individual shareholders. The requirements seem to be silent on medium sized or small businesses. Studies show that the majority of Kenyan entrepreneurs are locked up in the micro and small enterprises partly due to the inability to mobilise financial capital. Can the policy makers reform the law to permit parallel stock markets that target such groups? It will be easier for the public to invest in such groups as long as they meet the other non-monetary requirements. Stock brokers could engage in over the counter trading, mobilise stocks for medium-sized businesses and assist entrepreneurs to clear cash-flow headache. Kenya should develop three levels of stock markets; the existing stock market, for big companies, medium level market, and low level market complete with graduation eligibility to the next level. The same can be said for the rest of Africa to allow majority to trade in stocks in whichever country. There are many positive side effects of such a venture. For instance, land grabbing, hurried buildings that do not meet architectural standards will reduce because many people will find other ways to invest their money. Businesses will be assured of capital and the resultant investment diversification will promote efficiency, competitiveness and sustainability of businesses. It is very clear, therefore, that to get ordinary Kenyans graduating into engaging in big business, the law must be reformed to fit into their pocket, that is, parallel stock markets must be allowed to thrive to enable all to enjoy the benefits of the stock market. By so doing, the ordinary citizens will also get economically empowered to enjoy the benefits of privatisation and to put in check the argument that privatisation will only benefit the politically connected. The CMA must save Kenyans from being held hostage by one investment club. We have seen the weakness of this approach in political leadership; we should be the last in the business sector to mirror politics in the financial markets. Let us liberalize the stock market and get capital for local entrepreneurs.
James Shikwati is director, Inter Region Economic Network and was recently named one of the 245 2008 young Global leaders by the World Economic Forum
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7:28
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 After acquiring the 'troubled' Solid Securities Ltd through NIC Capital, NIC Bank will soon be re-branding Solid to something like NIC stockbrokers or NIC Capital Securities Ltd. NIC Capital bought a 57% stake worth almost Ksh.231 million according to a valuation done late last year. I hope they will turn around the troubled brokerage firm to save us from yet another collapse. NIC profits for the FY07 broke the one billion mark.
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7:20
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 Resolution health, a health insurance firm, may be coming to the NSE in a few years time. At the moment they are considering a private placement to increase the number of shareholder and value of the company in preparation for listing in the NSE in a few years time. The insurance firm seeks to raise Ksh.600 million through this private placement. In their financial results for 2007, the company recorded a 63% increase in profit to Ksh.114 million. Their turnover increased to Ksh.591 million a 66% growth over the 2006 figures. The company projects a Ksh.910 million turnover at the end of this year and Ksh.300 million in net income. The insurer also expects to increase their member by over 175% from the current 19,600 to 54, 000 by year end. Resolution now join K-rep and Nakumatt who may be having their IPO's next year.
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5:19
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Equity Bank 2007 pretax profit jumped 118% to Ksh.2.4 billion, boosted by higher asset growth which was mainly supported by the increase in funding i.e
- capital injection of Ksh.11 billion (Helios EB)
- additional long-term debt of Ksh.4 billion
- growth in customer deposits of Ksh.15 billion (Ksh.31.5 billion from Ksh.16.3 billion 2006)
Other impresive figure inclide - Total operating income grew 73% in to Ksh.5.8 billion
- Total expenses rose 52% to Ksh.3.5. because of opening 28 additional branches, bringing the network to 98
- Interest income increased by 83% to Ksh.2.8 billion.
- Earnings per share rose to Ksh.6.96 from Ksh.2.77 in 2006.
- A total dividend payment of Ksh.543 million has been proposed compared to ksh.181 million last year.
- Market capitalization grew by 331% to Ksh.54.3 billion in from Ksh.12.6 billion
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0:26
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 One of the fundamental pillars of a well-built securities exchange is a strong and efficient regulatory organ. This helps build investor confidence, ensure security of investment and punish market players that do not abide by regulations that promote a free market environment. Kenya’s Nairobi Stocks Exchange (NSE) has witnessed a surge of rogue stockbrokers. The most recent example is the Nyaga Stock Brokers (which was marred in allegations of unauthorized trading in client’s shares) and Francis Thuo Stocks brokerage firm that went down in similar circumstances a year ago. Despite having a CMA that claims to be functional, the perpetrators of these criminal activities have neither been charged in a court of law nor investigated. Instead, affected clients were quickly compensated and the matter swept below the carpet in both cases. Clearly, there are fishy activities in the capital market that beg investigation. When Francis Thuo Stock Brokers were suspended in 2007, several complaints were raised to the CMA about Nyaga Stock Brokers, but nothing was done. When the story finally appeared in the local dailies early this month, the NSE feigned surprise and moved quickly to create a Ksh.100 million fund to help affected clients. This happened amidst investigations on the stockbrokers’ conduct. Nyaga Stocks Brokers should have been suspended immediately, since their operating capital has not only been in the negative but they have been using gains made from illegal trade in clients’ shares to prop up their operating capital. The preferential treatment accorded to this criminal firm is an abuse of a free and efficient market. A market that has a turnover of over Ksh.100 billion per year should be well regulated by a strong, independent and decisive capital markets regulator to avoid manipulations and subsidizing of failure being witnessing at the NSE. The capital markets regulator can easily be equated to the Central bank in terms of mandate and duty. While the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) is trying to ensure that the activities of commercial banks and the monetary policy are under constant check, the CMA is trying as much as it can to maintain the status quo, in this case rogue broker are left to rule the market with their ever-present power plays and manipulations. An integrated robust regulator will encourage a saving and investing culture among Kenyans. It will also create the much required confidence in both foreign and local investors at this time when Kenya is facing a lot of negative publicity from the post election violence. In the absence of a strong body, then the country should be prepared for a capital flight to other efficient and better frontier markets. The CMA is to blame for our underdeveloped capital market. When the electronic trading system was introduced at the NSE, the CMA was quick to point out how this would help efficiently monitor the transaction and audit activities of brokers. But this never came to be. Instead it opened up a new frontier for rogue brokers to engage in illegal trading of clients’ shares without their authorization with unabated impunity. It is sad that the number of stock brokerage players at the NSE has remained 18 since the NSE was founded in 1950. The recent entry of Renaissance capital Ltd. only replaced the ill-fated Francis Thuo. This leaves very small room for competition, creating a cartel of few players who decide on who joins the market and how the market is regulated. This has led to the formation of numerous stocks agents that charge exorbitant fees and provide very unprofessional services to their clients. The cartels create a perfect environment for market manipulation for the benefit of the cartel members. Investment is not static. Market regulations need to be dynamic and constantly reviewed to ensure that investors are protected from imminent mal-practice from the industry players. If the country hopes to achieve the 2030 vision, then it’s obliged to have an independent robust CMA that will ensure a free and efficient capitals market.
(This is one of my recent articles on the African Executive on-line magazine.)
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8:33
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Kenya Re suspended for a day Kenya Re was yesterday suspended from trading on the NSE for releasing their ‘bad’ 3rd quarter results through the press without submitting it for approval by the NSE first. This is expected to affect the share price today, which may tumble a notch lower partly due to the poor results reported and the bleak future of the industry arising from huge claims occasioned by the post election violence on businesses. Companies’ results Other companies that have released their results recently include Accesskenya, Barclays, Bamburi and KPLC. Watch out for very impressive 2007 results from Banks {think Equity, KCB…} Growthfin financing SME With Only 11% of the Kenyan population having access to formal banking and many microfince solutions not working for kenyans, FSDKenya (Financial Sector Deepening) through a project called GrowthFin has come up with innovative, tailor made financing solutions for SME’s. FSDKenya is an organization that works with key partners to facilitate access to finance for Kenya's Small and Medium sized Enterprises. This can easily be confused by GroFin which also give financial support services to Entreprenuers. GroFin is an international company, while Growthfin is just a product of FSDKenya, a local company. Celtel vs. Safaricom It seems Celtel has resorted to dishing out very good offers and mad-slinging Safaricom to win back their lost customer base. They are now calling themselves the ‘Best Option’, just to indicate who they are fighting against. But sincerely, I like their new Pamoja Tariff. I believe it’s the lowest ever since mobile phones stepped in to Kenya. It doesn’t come better than this.
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8:22
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 Apprentice Africa an African version of the popular TV series "The Apprentice" produced by Mark Burnet and hosted by U.S. multi billionaire, Donald Trump will be opening on tomorrow February 26, 2008 in Nigeria. KTN will has bought the rights to air it in Kenya, but am not sure if it will air it in ‘real-time’ as from 26th when it opens. Unlike the original version where the winner goes home with annual salary of $250,000, the African version being sponsored by Bank PHB from Nigeria will earn the winner only $200,000 (wonder why?)  Biodun Shobanjo chairman of the Troyka Group, a holding company of several large firms, with over seven thousand employees and with a turnover in excess of N20 billion ($167 million) per annum, will be the CEO (Trump) of Apprentice Africa. This is one of my favorite programs and i hope the quality will be as good as the ones from Mark Brunet. If it turns out to be just another Nigerian movie i will be so disappointed.
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0:38
From: KA-INVESTOR
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From my previous post i got this visitor's question that I would like to share with you and the answer i gave. What do you think? His Question: Dear sir, I've been a regular of your blog and I've gained some very vital knowledge while here...to make the long story short I would kindly request your advice on two good buys (share) on the NSE, and your opinions as to why. Thank you. mseewetu@gmail.comMy Answer: Hi Msee wetu, Thanks for leaving your comment on my blog. Regarding the question, I don't think it is wise to buy into shares right now since political instability in the country is quite unpredictable. However, if you so wish to make long term buy I would advice you to go for the following shares: 1. Stan chart
I expect them to give out good dividend when they announce 2007 results. This is a strong company that banks on experience and efficiency. 2. KCB (watch the rights issue)
With an extensive branch network and investment in latest technologies across the East African region, this banks growth prospects look promising. They also have a very strong marketing strategy that sets them a head of the rest. They are planning to have a rights issue soon and you can get gain a bit from the price rally occasioned by it. I suspect they will announce good dividends coupled with a bonus issue when they give out their end year results, to sweeten the rights issue (remember NIC bank) 3. KQ (very long term)I suggest this since it’s a strong counter that has received some battering of late. Their operating cost is high due to the increasing prices on the international market, there has been an increase in competition from international airlines and tourism which is their main source of revenue is badly affected by the effects of post election violence. Adding the resignations of their two directors, many people are off-loading them now to avoid further losses so you can get them at a bargain - less than Ksh.45. I would advice you to get this as a long term counter, 5 to 10 year. But eventually it will pay back well. Several companies will soon be releasing their end year results and most of them are likely to post good profits for 2007. You can also buy in the depressed counter that you anticipate will perform well for short term gains from speculators (not a very good idea…it makes you a speculator too). The finance and banking sector had a very good year last year so check out this counters - specifically banks. Also consider companies in the construction sector that is likely to boom soon if the political stalemate is resolved (think Athi River and Bamburi) Disclaimer: These are my personal opinions and should not be taken as statements of fact. Please consult your broker or investment advisor before making any transactions. Thanks & regards, Kainvestor kainvestor@gmail.com
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5:53
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 Bora Capital private placements Bora Capital Ltd., a Real Estate Investment Management firm issued a private placement late last year to raise Ksh.700 million. The offer will be closing in April, so if you wish to diversify your port-folio into real estate checks out their offer. I believe real estate is the next big thing, as the NSE slows down. I hope Bora's placement turns out ok, some of the recent placements have been sort of failures, with Trancentury Ltd. Opting for an IPO instead. NEBS business plan toolI stumbled up on this great business plan writing tool from NEBS that helps you construct a great business plan even if you have no idea how to write one. I like it most because it helps you write each section step by step and save it to be worked on later. NEBS also give other useful tools such as N ewsletter Tool, Business Startup Preparation Evaluation, Lease vs. Buy Analysis , and Loan Amortization Calculator Nyaga stocks broker Even after engaging in criminal acts that involved trading in their clients shares I didn’t imagine that they will still be considered as one of the top five brokerage firms in the country. Most of the money they make I’m sure is through unauthorized transactions that should be investigated. I think small investors are being edged out of the market slowly, but not before being squeezed out of their hard earned money.
Safaricom Bahaving BadlyIt's quite uncivilized for safaricom to perfom a system change that affects all their pre-paid subscribers and the only notice I've seen is on their I&M building 'closed' office (with no one to answer questions). The notice is even signed by Micheal Joseph himself! I hope the signature appended on that notice is just an electronic one and MJ did not participate in a such treacherous activity. Most their pre-paid subscribers are wondering what is wrong? Nobody is able to load units into their phones, send sms, send money through M-pesa or make calls. Somebody need to be fired somewhere, or we are suing! Where are they? Where is Ringera? Where is Chief justice Gicheru? Where is the AG Amos Wako? Hon. Kipkalya kones sued for bankruptcy I saw an advertisement on Saturday indicating that Kipkalya Kones is being sued by his creditors (Diamond Trust bank and others) for bankruptcy. How does some one like him fall into bankruptcy when all the salary he get is earned for doing nothing at all, like all other MPs?
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6:56
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Econet Roll Out Deadline Shifted The government, through Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK), has moved the roll out deadline for Econet Wireless by six-month to June 2008. Their earlier deadline was expiring at the end of this January. If they fail to roll out by June they risk losing concession. Econet was awarded a license more than four years ago but has since been beset by financial troubles and shareholder feuds. Econet paid its USD27 million license fee in September 2007, but is yet to announce a launch schedule. Earlier this month Indian conglomerate Essar Group bought a 49% stake in the parent company, Econet Wireless International However, Econet says it is facing some difficulties setting up national roaming agreements with Safaricom and Celtel Kenya, which would allow it to piggyback on their networks until it completes its own rollout.
Safaricom IPOThere are fears in the government circles that the current violence and unrest could result in lower returns from the planned public offering of Safaricom shares. The sale, which was postponed in December, is however still scheduled for the 1st quarter of 2008. The main fears is that that potential investors may be wary of buying into what is one of Africa’s most profitable firms. The success of this IPO will suffer both a broad and locally. The fate of the Euro-bond also hangs on the balance. ‘Crime of Passion’ Another ODM MP, David Kimutai Too – of Ainamoi, has just been shoot dead by a traffic policeman. The shooting has been quickly termed as a ‘crime of passion’ has it is said that the MP was having an illicit affair with the policeman’s girlfriend. This reminds me of Tony Ndilinge’s shooting. It’s now official, all emails, phone calls and sms are being monitored. So be careful what you say, send or receive.
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6:24
From: KA-INVESTOR
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NSE Trading Halted {Again} Trading at the Nairobi Stock Exchange halted trade for a few minutes today as the index fell 5% in accordance to trading rules. Apparently its said that there was too much supply of shares and this brought down the prices. Last week on Monday trading was halted for the whole day due to a ‘technical hitch’ in the NSE WAN that connect brokers and enable trading. Is it ok for investors to panic now? KQ reduce fares The National carrier Kenya Airways will review its current fare structure in order to offer competitive charges to its customers. This will include travel agents not paying commission fee as from April 1 2008. Online bookings will also not be charged. This will also encourage the uptake of on-line booking by clients. Now going to Mombassa by flight only cost Ksh.5,000 return ticket (plus taxes). The 2nd wave As I had mentioned before, this second wave of revenge killings was bound to happen sooner than later. Better prepare yourselves for the worst, because if things go on like this, we will loose all that hold so dear. In my opinion I don’t foresee any viable solution soon. And where is KIBAKI!? Helicopters & rubber bullets After letting Kenyans die for almost over a month, under the pretext of pre-election violence, the Kenya police is now using helicopters and rubber bullets to disperse gangs of youth wilding machetes in Naivasha. I’m just wondering why they did use the same in these other areas, especially why they didn’t use rubber bullets in Kisumu. Ours is a strange country. Tribute to Mugabe Were I  was shocked this morning to wake up to the news that newly elected Embakasi MP, Mugabe Were, has been killed. It’s very disheartening the way things are happening in Kenya. I don’t see the reason he had to die in cold blood. May God rest his soul in enternal peace.
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6:36
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 Freedom House has released findings that have down graded Kenya’s freedom index to “not free”. This is mainly due to the recent election atrocities committed by the government. According to the report released on January 16, Kenya is the most declined (in terms of freedom) country in Africa due to credible reports (EU & US observers’ reports) of vote rigging in the presidential contest and violence triggered by the official results. Freedom House defines a “free country” as one where there is “broad scope for open political competition, a climate of respect for civil liberties, significant independent civil life and independent media”. Kenya has violated all of these in less than 20 days, moving us from a “partly free” state to a “not free” one. Kenya now rank in the same category as Somali, Zimbwabwe and Congo. SHAME! In general, most African countries have slide backwards in 2007.
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5:29
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Safaricom - Their IPO is scheduled for the 1st quarter of 2008. Probably in early March. I expect this to be a barometer of investors confidence on the market after the post election skirmishes - They incurred a loss of over Ksh400 million in the post elections violence - their 10/5 bob offer has bee extended to January 15th. Celtel - Launches a new cheaper pamoja service that will see its customers enjoy cheaper calling rates of up to 30% lower than the current charges - I can’t wait to see what Safaricom will come up with in response to this. Remember when Celtel came up with their ‘one bob offer’, Safaricom responded with a 10/5 bob offer. - Celtel lost over Ksh.200 million due to the post election violence Econet - Has sold 49% of its shares to an Indian communication company Essar Communication Holdings. I hope this will enable them roll out the much a waited third mobile phone service line. - This will most definitely increase competition in this industry leading to price cuts for the consumers.
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2:03
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 It has been over a month since I posted anything on this blog. All this time I was working on family matters and getting a rest for the hectic 2007 I had. After voting diligently as all Kenyans did, all I wanted was a fresh start, a new 2008 with new leadership and a much clearer vision for our beloved country Kenya. I sat there, staring at the TV as the events at KICC unfolded. First, it was just a small delay in receiving official results from returning officers (all of these results had already been transmitted to Kenyans via TV and Radio). Then things took the wrong turn. I never imagined a simple process like tallying, which I mastered in lower primary school, could be so difficult for well paid grown ups at ECK. Then the worst happened and hell broke loose across the whole country. Men turned into beasts and preyed for fellow Kenyans blood. Police shoot to kill and houses went up in flames. All this just because two men are fighting for power. All kinds of solutions have been suggested but none of them seems to be working or simply acceptable by anyone. While our politicians are talking tough and trying to score their selfish political points, Kenyans are dying out there, living like refugees in their own country. Everything is headed for the worst and a new wave of fear is spreading as people expect an outburst of revenge. From what I am hearing, things are headed for the worst. Personally, this wave of violence has hit home - literaly. A premises owned by my dad was torched just because he had rented one shop to a kikuyu lady. My dad did not only loose the three shops premises but also lost his chemist shop that was one of the shops. After taking a golden hand shake in the early 90’s he had bought a plot and constructed a small three shops rental premises. This has been his largest source of income that has seen us through education. All this is now gone thanks to elections 07. So my 60 years old mzee is back to square one. So what future does Kenya hold? Even if Kibaki or Raila rules this country for the next five years how will they unit Kenyans? Kenyans have lost the innocence of being united for over forty years, the post election violence has brought out who we really are… tribalists to the core! Our democracy is based on tribal alignments and nothing else matters. Is it the system that has failed us or have we failed the system?
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5:16
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Of late, many banks have been publishing their Q3 results, which among other things indicate very impressive results. My main point of interest has been the growth in customer deposits graph that more often appears on the right side of the financial statements. Today I was looking at the Family bank results and I could not help noticing the upwards trend of their graphs. Most of them look like this:  Where has all these deposits come from? Ok you can say that many more Kenyans have bank accounts now days than they used to before. On the contrary, the number of banks has increased too. Banks such as equity, family bank and the recent entry of Islamic banks should have taken care of these extra deposits from former non-bankers. Even with increased remittance from abroad at least some bank will be showing decreased deposits as clients move from a bank they perceive to be expensive to the cheaper ones. I’m not sure how they count their customer deposits but the vague idea I have is that they count the amount a customer has in his account at the time of making the balance sheet. I hope the deposit is not arrived at by counting the number of times customers deposit money in their account because this will not reflect the correct position of the accounts. What I mean is, if I deposit Ksh10,000 today and withdraw Ksh.10,000 tomorrow then bank the same amount the next day it would be wrong to say I deposited Ksh.20,000 in two days. In this case, if I do this the whole months it will indicate that I have deposited at least Ksh120,000 in that months. What is the case here? Other issues: Is Jimnah Mbaru insane or something? How can he open his mouth after attending a Ksh.1 millio-a-plate dinner to say that CMA staffs need huge pay hikes so as to retain quality staff? How can we pay the CMA chairperson Ksh.3 million per months for not doing anything other than what the government should be doing? For one thing, I believe the CMA is not big enough to warrant such kind of salary. Citing the Kenya anti corruption boss as an example was worst thing he did. KACA is a political post that I strongly believe should be done away with as the organ does nothing, and I hope CMA is not trying to emulate them. CMA need to do exemplary work first before asking for bigger pay. What would be the difference between CMA and Parliament if all they both do is pay themselves well while doing nothing?
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4:49
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 Is it just my imagination or this coming December is overloaded with government activities? Apart from the general elections, there is the Safaricom IPO and privatization of Telkom. Most probably, our holidays will be spent queuing at your stockbroker and worrying about the out come of both the Safaricom IPO and the General election. There is a possibility that the Safaricom IPO will open on 12 and not 3 December has earlier suggested. Come January, regardless of who wins, the stock market will be on a downwards trend with school fees and investors’ money tied up in refunds. My favorite candidate already lost in the nomination {though he already had a plan B in the name of a certificate in AGANO} I still expect him to loss in the final ballot since he has failed to get the popular part in my constituency. Since I care less who wins the presidency, most likely I won’t vote. That leaves me with all the time to queue at my broker and worry about the refunds. I’m even thinking of providing my services to those who will busy campaigning. Definitely, I will charge a small fee before hand and a drink or two when the deal is done. I don’t understand what is all this fight over whether Safaricom should be listed in a foreign market or not. They should have resolved this before they decided to have the IPO. When the government decided to fast track the IPO and have it in December instead of next year, they should have made all details clear. The issue of listing in a foreign bourse has been here since way back and they are still arguing up to the last minute. And how is the ODM court appeal going? Will it also affect the IPO? Therefore, these general elections prepare to queue at the polling station and at the broker. Alternatively, you will have to choose which one gives you more value. As MOI once said “kama inaongeza sufuria za ugali na vikombe vya chai”
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6:51
From: KA-INVESTOR
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Yesterday morning I went to the ATM for the obvious reasons. At the entrance there were these three very unmotivated girls/ladies (I forgive them…it was around 9.00am, too early for them I guess) in KCB’s characteristic green T-shirts talking to clients on the line about the new sms banking the KCB want to introduce. Being an ardent KCB customer, I approached one who looked a little bit active of the three. To say I was disappointed is just but the least. Here are three ladies who have come to sell a new service to clients and they do not even know how the service works. To crown it all, she starts complaining to me how they have not been given a desk to work on. Either way, I presumed they were not well paid, so I got the message and took a print out to read for my self. I left the ATM thinking, if KCB will be recruiting these kinds of staff, I will have to shift banks very soon. Then what bank would I join? Of late Barclays has been churning out very good offers and I thought trying them out would not be a bad idea. Equity bank came to mind too. This bank has seen all the bad publicity but has continued to perform exemplary. Comparing the two, I discovered that I could not. The comparison I needed to make was KCB vs. Equity and not Barclays vs. Equity. The comparison between Equity Bank strategy and Barclays has been made severally. However, I think the comparison should be made between KCB and Equity. Why am I saying this? For starters comparing equity to Barclays is more of a Goliath – David case. I can say Barclays is in a different class….one that equity cannot even think of. Locally, you can say that the two are competing but if you factor in the international alignment that Barclays has you find that it is not competing in any way with Equity. Like the expansion strategy Barclays (k) is currently undertaking, is not to counter Equity’s but just by chance the two coincided. They both operate in the same industry, so they are bound to adopt the same strategy. Both Equity and KCB are indigenous banks with a goal to expand within the East African region. KCB have a head start on the regional front with its branches in Kampala-Ug and Juba-South Sudan and soon they will be in Kigali - Rwanda. Good for them, but the last time I checked Equity was growing in an exponential rate and if it goes on like this, in the near future, they will be having branches allover East Africa. Soon Equity will be opening a branch in South Sudan. However, both banks still have a lot of room for improvement. I looked at other factors like:  (sourced from Central Bank of Kenya report)Considering the hassle associated with moving banks, I think it would be wise for me to stick with KCB. I have been with them since my University days when i was still courting HELB and I like their adverts, they make you feel warm inside. see what other banks offers: 
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9:24
From: KA-INVESTOR
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 I was reading the pfblog archives and came across this excerpt. Thought it will be good to share with my fellow Kenyans. The coming general elections have caused a lot of uncertainness in the stocks market and at such time one need reassurance of how to maintain their investment value. Reading the 10 commandments to | |
