Mashada Blogs » April 7, 2009

You Missed This: Coalition Troubles In Kenya: What Next?

2009-04-07T19:21:00-04:00

Press Statement From ODM About Kilaguni

There is plenty of evidence to suggest that Mwai Kibaki sees himself as another Jomo Kenyatta. Cool and calm and collected amidst all kinds of troubles and crisis that are inevitable for a president to encounter regularly. A classic example is during the post election troubles. President Kibaki was calm and asleep as the country burned and was only nudged half awake when calls started coming in from the White House and State department. In fact he even instructed his cabinet ministers to play down the crisis by telling the press those early peace negotiators, Desmond Tutu and former president of Ghana John Kufour were in the country for a cup of tea.

Then yesterday when he came back into the country there were traditional dancers to entertain him and welcome him just like it was in the Kenyatta days. Why doesn’t the government cut this useless expenditure and use the money to feed the hungry? Kenyans would faint in shock if they knew the budget used for welcoming the president back into the country yesterday after a two day trip!!! Wonders never cease in Kenya do they?

But Mwai Kibaki can never be Jomo Kenyatta because 1963 was very different from 2003. Kibaki does not have the power Kenyatta had and never will. Neither is he as cunning as Baba Uhuru was. Again Kibaki cannot arrest Raila and detain him without trial the way Kenyatta arrested and detained Raila’s dad Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

Still there are some similarities. Kenyatta’s government murdered JM Kariuki, cutting his private parts and stuffing them in his mouth. That dramatically quieted the excitement in parliament at the time and killed the rising ambition and unrest that was brewing against the Kenyatta government. Mwai Kibaki’s government had two top officials of the Oscar Foundation gunned down in cold blood and that quieted the civil society most of whom have now gone underground and have shut their mouths tight since the incident. Nobody wants to stop a hail of bullets from the Kwekwe squad.

But I digress. What I was saying today is that when you understand how Mwai Kibaki operates and thinks, you will know that as I write this post (9:20am Kenyan time) he is most probably still asleep and life is going on in its’ normal slow pace at State House Nairobi. The man probably still believes that there will be no election until 2012. Very funny indeed because the big question now is whether we will have a country left by the time 2012 rolls up. Already it is no longer a question of if the grand coalition government will hold but one of how much longer it will hold.

Still I have to admit that the president’s handlers are extremely busy and working overtime to “read” every move of ODM and Raila Odinga and counter it quickly. Clearly they are running scared. Already the president’s men know that they have William Ruto and a handful of MPs from the Rift valley in their pockets. However they seem to ignore the fact that they have lost the biggest single political party within PNU which is Martha Karua’s Narc Kenya.

In fact one thing the press has totally missed in their reporting of the problems in the coalition government is the fact that major re-alignments that have taken place mean that it is no longer a matter of ODM versus PNU. Martha Karua is now an ODM ally while Ruto is a staunch but quiet PNU supporter. Which is just as well because Ruto and Karua seem to be sworn enemies these days.

However looking at the numbers PNU are clearly in trouble and that is why their empty threats to bring a censure motion against the Prime Minister is hilarious. This is one of the reasons why money would have started talking by now to get the necessary support in parliament, however this time round the government is terribly broke and to make matters worse Anglo Leasing funds in foreign accounts (which would have now been used) were frozen yesterday. Read the story HERE.

Actually whichever way you look at the current political crisis in Kenya, it is clear that we are headed for chaos. For starters ODM are determined that they will not play into the hands of the presidential advisors and walk out of government. Their strategy is to fight from within. And remember that the President cannot fire the Prime Minister because his office is entrenched in the constitution. And then remember that mass action (ODM’s favourite lethal weapon) is scheduled to be unleashed on hapless starving and impoverished Kenyans next week. Actually my sources tell me that ODMers came out of yesterday’s meeting ecstatic, like they had already won the long drawn out battle that is ahead of us. I think they have realized that they have Mwai Kibaki cornered and the sleeping president doesn’t even seem to know it.

Brace yourselves folks, the ride ahead is definitely going to be rocky. Very rocky.

See also: Was Karua Raped?

Kumekucha Launches Campaign

I have no idea how and when but let me assure you that elections are coming soon. Let us start thinking about how we will vote.

One of the good reasons for getting rid of all the old guys in power now is so that younger guys who are more familiar with technology can enable Kenyans to benefit from it. I will give just one example. Technology can be used very effectively to fight crime. We already have hidden cameras in town (not enough) and we already have an initiative by a private company to help people track their stolen cell phones. We also have the stalled DNA testing crime lab that is yet to be built.

However much more can still be done and only younger dot come generation Kenyans can figure this out for the country. As it is with the current jokers firmly in power, George Muhoho will always be re-appointed managing director of the Kenya Airports Authority (I mean the man is over 70 years old!!!). Are there no younger able qualified Kenyans? Besides the man does NOT need the job while many younger Kenyans do!!

As I have said here often, there is no way these old dinosaurs can give us any new ideas.

P.S. The argument I always hear is people asking what the young guys in the current political system have done. Well, the thing is they can NOT do much when the decision-making dinosaurs are still in power. We need radical surgery in Kenya. How about electing a 40 year old as President? Okay Maximum 45 years!!!?

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You Missed This: The Truth About Kilaguni Retreat

2009-04-07T19:15:00-04:00

THE TRUTH ON THE COLLAPSE OF THE KILAGUNI TALKS
A PRESS STATEMENT FROM ODM

The ORANGE DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT wishes to state that the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kenya, the Rt. Hon Raila Amolo Odinga (the Prime Minister), and the ODM members of the Permanent Committee on the Management of Grand Coalition Affairs (the Permanent Committee) went to Kilaguni retreat in order to identify, isolate, discuss and resolve all the issues affecting the smooth running of the Grand Coalition Government.

We did this in order to enable the country move forward. It was in recognition of the fact that without resolution of these issues, the Grand Coalition Government would not be able to deliver on the People’s Agenda set out in the National Accord. The full and faithful implementation of the National Accord, in both letter and spirit, is well over-due.

The primary purpose of the Permanent Committee is to ensure that the Grand Coalition Government can function and resolve issues within it.

Unfortunately we were not able to agree on issues for discussion; issues which had been agreed on before hand. In fact,by March 14, 2009, the Joint Secretaries had prepared a Draft Agenda, which was typed and printed by the Presidency and Cabinet Office in the Office of the President on March 14th, and which ODM tabled at Kilaguni, contained the following items for discussion:

President’s opening remarks
Prime Minister’s opening remarks
Minutes of Meetings held on 6th and 11th February,2009 (to be tabled)
Matters arising
Draft Terms of Reference and Working Modalities of the Permanent Committee
Draft Grand Coalition Agreement
Confidence Building within the Coalition
National Unity and National Cohesion Agenda
Issues affecting the Grand Coalition and mechanisms for resolution
Evaluation and monitoring of the implementation of the national accord report
Image building for the Grand Coalition
Prof. Philip Alston’s report and Institutional Reforms
Review of progress on the implementation of the national accord, including agenda 4
Collective Responsibility
De-politicization of the Public Service
Any Other Business

The PNU and their joint secretary have not denied this FACT.

At its first meeting on February 6th, 2006, the Permanent Committee had agreed that in order for the Grand Coalition to run smoothly, a Grand Coalition Agreement and Terms of Reference and working modalities for the Permanent Committee needed to be prepared.

Indeed, the Joint Secretaries researched on ,met, discussed and consulted extensively on both instruments. Draft copies of both documents were subsequently prepared and circulated to the members of the Permanent Committee by the Joint Secretaries for discussion at Kilaguni. This was done more than one week prior to the Kilaguni Retreat.

In point of fact, both PNU and ODM agreed in the Draft Terms of Reference and Working Modalities that whatever either party wanted to be on the agenda for discussion would be included for deliberation.

In addition, the permanent committee’s meetings were to be closed to non-members.

The Kilaguni discussions were scheduled to take place on Friday, April 3rd, to Sunday, April 6th, inclusive. It was agreed that apart from security, only members of the Permanent Committee plus the two Joint Secretaries, would attend the meting.

However, upon arrival at Kilaguni, the ODM team found the entire place swarming with more than one hundred officers from the Office of the President (OP). The Director of National Security Intelligence Service, the Head of Public Service, the State House Controller & Private Secretary to the President and horde of other senior officials that ought not to have be there, were brought there by PNU team. The PNU coalition also invited Hon. Mutula Kilonzo and Noah Wekesa, who are not members of the Permanent Committee, in clear breach of the Terms of Reference and Modalities already agreed upon.

To make matters worse, the PNU coalition came armed with a Draft Agenda which was different from the joint agenda that had been agreed to and distributed to members.

The ODM team requested the PNU Coalition Members of the Permanent Committee to agree for the Joint Draft Agenda to be tabled for adoption and discussion to no avail.

Upon realizing that the PNU coalition did not intend to abide by the Joint Agenda, the ODM team prepared a second draft agenda with the following items:

Management of the Grand Coalition
Membership of the Permanent Committee & setting up of the Joint Secretariat
Decision making and Government Communication
Appointments in government
Protocol
The State of the Economy
Security Organs
Implementation of the National Accord
Coalition Agreement (see minutes of Feb. 5th, 2009, page 3)
Prof. Philip Alston’s report
Fast Tracking Reform Agendas 1,2,3 and 4 agreed to at the Serena Talks

The ODM team then asked their PNU Coalition Partners to attend the meeting and have both Draft Agendas discussed so that an amicable decision could be made with respect of the issues of discussion but the PNU team flatly refused, insisting that it was their draft agenda or nothing.

The Prime Minister and the entire Permanent Committee went into the conference room on Saturday, April 4th, 2009 and attempted to resolve the differences without success. The Prime Minister then asked the PNU team to invite the President to come to the conference room so that all the contentious issues could be discussed and resolved. Unfortunately, the President refused to attend.

Both teams went for lunch and returned to the Conference Room with Prime Minister, hoping that the President would attend but this never happened. However after the Prime Minister asked for a brief break for consultations at about 2:30 PM, the president approached the conference room rather than stay and sit, he proceeded to a private office located on the second floor of the conference room.

Believing that the President was in the conference room ,the Prime Minister and the ODM team returned only to be met by Hons. Uhuru Kenyatta , Moses Wetangula and George Saitoti, asking the Prime Minister to go upstairs to the President.

It was at this point that the Prime Minister correctly advised the PNU team to invite the President to the conference room of the meeting. The President either refused to come down to the meeting. Instead, the PNU team started discussing “the need for an exit strategy”. They wanted the Prime Minister and the ODM team to agree to issue a Joint Press Statement in which the country was to be misled that the Kilaguni Talks had gone on well.

At about 3:30pm, the Prime Minister and the ODM team realized that neither the President nor the PNU team wanted to discuss the serious issues ailing our country. A decision was then made for the Prime Minister to return to his hotel room as both teams continued to stay in the conference room.

Barely ten minutes after the Prime Minister returned to his hotel room, the President climbed down and went back to his suite. The President did not even greet the ODM team. He passed the prime Minister’s room even without stopping to say “Jambo!”.

The meeting had collapsed!

ODM believed that we cannot have a functioning Government and Coalition without an honest recognition, isolation and resolution of the issues affecting the Grand Coalition and the country at large.

PNU, on the other hand, insists issues cannot even be discussed and that the retreat was meant as a PR exercise!

ODM is fully committed to have service delivery to all Kenyans; a serious discussion of all issues affecting the people of Kenya, particularly poverty and the state of the economy, unemployment, inequalities and inequities in resource allocation and distribution, grand corruption, extra-judicial killings, institutional reforms and legal reforms; and comprehensive constitutional review.

It is common knowledge that the National Accord provides for real power sharing in Government between President Kibaki / PNU Coalition and Prime Minister Raila Odinga / ODM. Yet one year and a half following the formation of the Grand Coalition Government, the only power that has been shared with ODM is the cabinet. President Kibaki continues to disregard the provisions of the national Accord and indeed the constitution by making major decisions affecting all Kenyans without regard to his coalition partner.

This situation must change!

We hope and expect the leaders of the PU coalition will show good faith and join us in attempting to address issues affecting our nation and people. But this must be done in full compliance with the National Accord. Reforms cannot be bought by lies, half truths, concoctions and power games by the PNU coalition.Kumekucha

make mine a double espresso...: Melancholy...

2009-04-07T13:53:00-04:00

Loneliness...
After weeks of locking myself in my room during the day, ignoring phone calls and text messages, only drinking at home, though now i'm down to not drinking at all and watching and re watching all the movies i have on my hard drive... I'm tired. I'm bored. I'm so freakin lonely... It's pathetic.

Everyone goes through one of these phases right? I'm just kinda tired of the people around me. I'm tired of how nothing's changing, life seems to be passing me by, in fast forward, changes i wanted to make about myself... From three years ago, i'm still unable to.

I'm lying in bed. Watching already watched episodes of "the war at home" full from the large pizza i made disappear(it was healthy though, it had pineapple), on a tuesday night, at 8.00 pm during my mid semester break. How dull is that...

Maybe it's my melancholia taking it's toll. Ugh. I'm just tired. And bored. And lonely. It sucks.

Kenyan Pundit: On Martha Karua

2009-04-07T13:29:09-04:00

I’m in Nairobi for a bit and the hottest news at the moment is Karua’s resignation.

I have no doubt (and I have it on good authority) that she was indeed being frustrated in her role as Minister of Justice - apparently Gicheru has way more sway than she did with the ‘baks, however, lets be clear that this is also about positioning for the next election or any possible fallout of the coalition government. And its not about her being scared of the censure vote, she was going to win that one hands down with ODM’s support. In any event, I have to give her props for at least not complaining about the govt while drawing a fat salary and doing deals. That’s one reason why Kibaki can’t take Raila’s hissy fits seriously, he’s like “dude, can we revisit the maize and your son’s scandals first?”

I had the opportunity to chat with Karua one on one when I was in Geneva last week (I actually had a post on that pending oh well). I have to say that I was impressed with her despite myself and my preconceptions of her. She is brilliant, articulate, on point, ambitious and a straight shooter. Unlike most politicians I’ve met who thrive in trivialities when I tried to talk to them, she was engaging and seemed to enjoy the fact that I wasn’t brown-nosing her. Do I disagree with a lot of things she has said and done? Hell yes (and I’m not like totally gaga about her). But shock on me, I kinda liked her.

[An aside, has she ever been linked to a corruption scandal?]

One of the things we discussed was the issue of old fogies dominating Kenyan politics. I argued that this was one of the biggest problems with Kenyan politics. Karua shot back that this Parliament was the youngest we have ever had in Kenya, but the most corrupt by far with some of the young MPs leading the way (in her words the biggest auction house in Africa). In her view, the current Parliament was even worse then when she entered into a 1992 Parliament full of octogenarians and Moi hands. She also felt that everybody (including civil society) should drop their partisan issues, come together and push for reforms and then guys can go their merry way to fight it out for the next elections. We then discussed her website (which had been hacked a while back), mzalendo, facebook and her online strategy in general - she admitted she was clueless when it came to using the internet to campaign but that she was very aware that it was a powerful medium and that she needed to be on point.

I wish her well in her run for office, like her or not, she has the potential to be a gamechanger.

Kenya Imagine: Mungatana Resigns

2009-04-07T11:54:00-04:00

Danson Mungatana follows Martha out the door.

What An African Woman Thinks: The 100th Monkey Syndrome

2009-04-07T11:46:00-04:00

We live, we learn.

I’ve never heard of the 100th monkey syndrome before today. I was chatting with a friend, yadda yadda yaddaing about the same old thing: what will it take to turn our beloved country around, when he pulled something he called the 100th monkey syndrome out of his back pocket and flashed it at me. I drew a blank. As in I did not have one and a half clues to rub together.
The 100th monkey syndrome? Now who is that and what does he have to do with the length of Pinocchio’s nose?

Soon enough, off I went to the interweb(s), to find out.

(Note to self: have to have a conversation with DaddyCool, the father, about what his process would have been in finding the answer to this question way back when he was my age.)

In the meantime, here’s what I found out:

The 100th monkey syndrome is a theory about how learned behaviour spreads within a given population. It was popularised in a book titled the 100th Monkey by Ken Keyes. Here’s the excerpt I found at WowZone.

(Keep in mind as you read this that Ken Keyes offered it as a parable/legend and that there are disputes about whether the experiment actually took place and whether, if it did, its results were authentic. Still.)

The Japanese monkey, Macaca Fuscata, had been observed in the wild for a period of over 30 years. In 1952, on the island of Koshima, scientists were providing monkeys with sweet potatoes dropped in the sand. The monkey liked the taste of the raw sweet potatoes, but they found the dirt unpleasant.
An 18-month-old female named Imo found she could solve the problem by washing the potatoes in a nearby stream. She taught this trick to her mother. Her playmates also learned this new way and they taught their mothers too. This cultural innovation was gradually picked up by various monkeys before the eyes of the scientists.
Between 1952 and 1958 all the young monkeys learned to wash the sandy sweet potatoes to make them more palatable. Only the adults who imitated their children learned this social improvement. Other adults kept eating the dirty sweet potatoes.
Then something startling took place. In the autumn of 1958, a certain number of Koshima monkeys were washing sweet potatoes -- the exact number is not known. Let us suppose that when the sun rose one morning there were 99 monkeys on Koshima Island who had learned to wash their sweet potatoes. Let's further suppose that later that morning, the hundredth monkey learned to wash potatoes.
THEN IT HAPPENED!
By that evening almost everyone in the tribe was washing sweet potatoes before eating them. The added energy of this hundredth monkey somehow created an ideological breakthrough!
But notice: A most surprising thing observed by these scientists was that the habit of washing sweet potatoes then jumped over the sea. Colonies of monkeys on other islands and the mainland troop of monkeys at Takasakiyama began washing their sweet potatoes.
Thus, when a certain critical number achieves an awareness, this new awareness may be communicated from mind to mind. Although the exact number may vary, this Hundredth Monkey Phenomenon means that when only a limited number of people know of a new way, it may remain the conscious property of these people.
But there is a point at which if only one more person tunes-in to a new awareness, a field is strengthened so that this awareness is picked up by almost everyone!

Interesting, theory/parable/fill in the blank, eh? Very Tipping Point a la Malcolm Gladwell-ish, actually. I'm especially fascinated by the idea that the adults learnt from the children. What do you know.

Food for thought if nothing else. So, application time. How many monkeys do you think have learned how to wash their sweet potatoes in the stream in Kenya? How far do you think we are from the tipping point, from the 100th monkey? Is there a fastforward button? How do we expedite the process?

It's my window, but I don't own the view.

Kenya Imagine: A Tale of Two Lawyers

2009-04-07T11:40:00-04:00

I was not there. Nevertheless, apparently, I wanted all the judges sent home for new ones to be appointed, much like the ECK commissioners and now IIEC, etc. It did not matter to anyone that I protested the manner in which the whole rigmarole was conducted. I was a member and so its resolutions bound me, nipende nisipende.

Eric Ng'eno on the LSK's civil war.

Rants, Raves & Reviews: Kenol Share Price Shenanigans

2009-04-07T05:32:00-04:00

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On 6 April 2009, there was a block trade of 1.4 million Kenol shares done 'across the books' by Dyer & Blair at 30/- on the prompt board. I believe the seller got a raw deal. This was an outlier trade yet it was used to calculate the Volume Weighted Average Price which was 30/- at the end of trading.

The prior closing price was 45/-. And the results for the year ended 31 Dec 2008 were decent (EPS of 6.66) & included a dividend of Kes 3.50. On the normal board there were bids at 49/- with few sellers.

On 7 April 2009, there is demand for 392,000 shares at 33/- (10% above the VWAP of 6 April 2009) but no sellers.

The problem is that liquidity in this counter has been 'killed'. Sellers (unless desperate) will not sell at prices below 45 (IMHO). The rules on the NSE only allow for a price increase if there is a trade. So until someone sells shares at the lower price thus short-changing themselves... the price will remain at below the market-price until the shares go ex-dividend.

Solution:

- NSE needs to exclude 'outlier' trades when calculating VWAP. Or at least the opening trading prices.
- In the event of slow/dead trading due to bid/offer mis-matches, allow for an auction that brings the price to a level that allows for normal trading.

In Kenol's case, I am sure there are buyers willing to pay higher prices (than the bid of 33/- allowed) but they are stuck at 33/-. There were buyers willing to pay 49.25 on Monday (6 Apr 2009) after the results were disseminated.

My Opinion - I may be wrong: I think the buyer may have been D&B or an affiliate. The CDSC takes 2 days or so to credit the account of the Buyer. The Buyer will then push up the price to the 'realistic' level & then start selling the shares... Sigh... to be a broker in the know...